Which countries will have a recession before 2027?
Which countries will have a recession before 2027?
Begins in 563 days · Dec 31, 10:00am EST
Chance
United Kingdom
28%
United Kingdom
28%
Japan
22.9%
Japan
22.9%
India
9%
India
9%
2 more
Market Rules
United Kingdom
If United Kingdom has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from IMF.
The exact dataset for United Kingdom is GDP, Real, Seasonally Adjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.
Timeline and payout
Market openApr 23, 2024 · 8:00am EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout1 hour after closing
SeriesKXWRECSS
EventWRECSS-26
MarketWRECSS-26-UK
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
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About
Via the IMF: 'Most commentators and analysts use, as a practical definition of recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP)—the value of all goods and services a country produces.'