NBA Championship Odds 2026-27

Kalshi's market-implied chance of each NBA team winning the 2026-27 championship. The Oklahoma City Thunder lead the board at 23%, ahead of all 30 teams priced on the same question.

Live marketUpdated Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026 · 2:19 AM ET

Where these numbers come from: Each figure is the market price of that club’s title contract — the mid-market quote where the book is tight, otherwise the last trade. Prices are not a forecast from Kalshi; they are what traders are paying.

TITLE ODDS

2026-27 NBA title odds, best price first

30 of 30 teams priced.

2026-27 NBA title odds, best price first
Team	Title odds	7d	Conference	Trade
OKC Thunder	23%	+2pp	35%	Yes 23¢
SA Spurs	22%	−1pp	33%	Yes 22¢
PHI 76ers	11%	−3pp	22%	Yes 11¢
NY Knicks	9%	−1pp	21%	Yes 9¢
MIN Timberwolves	7%	+1pp	9%	Yes 7¢
MIA Heat	6%	−2pp	11%	Yes 6¢
BOS Celtics	5%	−1pp	13%	Yes 5¢
CLE Cavaliers	3%	−1pp	7%	Yes 3¢
DEN Nuggets	3%	−1pp	5%	Yes 3¢
LAL Lakers	3%	−2pp	7%	Yes 3¢
TOR Raptors	3%	−1pp	8%	Yes 3¢
DET Pistons	2%	−1pp	6%	Yes 2¢
GS Warriors	2%	−1pp	3%	Yes 2¢
HOU Rockets	2%	−1pp	4%	Yes 2¢
IND Pacers	2%	−1pp	6%	Yes 2¢
ORL Magic	2%	−1pp	3%	Yes 2¢
ATL Hawks	<1%	−1pp	3%	Yes 1¢
BKN Nets	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
CHA Hornets	<1%	−1pp	2%	Yes 1¢
CHI Bulls	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
DAL Mavericks	<1%	−1pp	1%	Yes 1¢
LAC Clippers	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
MEM Grizzlies	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
MIL Bucks	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
NO Pelicans	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
PHX Suns	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
POR Trail Blazers	<1%	−1pp	2%	Yes 1¢
SAC Kings	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
UTA Jazz	<1%	−1pp	2%	Yes 1¢
WSH Wizards	<1%	−1pp	3%	Yes 1¢

THE SPLIT

Who wins the Finals once they get there?

East against West, the favourite against the field and each contender’s title price against its conference price. The steeper a club sits on the chart, the likelier the market thinks it is to win a Finals it reaches.

East vs. West40% – 60%The market’s chance the title goes East, against the West: the West is favoured

The favourite vs. the field22%The Oklahoma City Thunder, about 1 in 5; the other clubs share the rest

Half the title chance3 clubsHow many clubs, likeliest first, hold half the market’s title chance between them

Surest in the Finals72%What the market gives the Minnesota Timberwolves to win the Finals once they reach it, the most of the 13 clubs priced at 5% or more to win their conference

2026-27 · As of Oct 13, 2026

NBA conference price vs. title price

Swipe sideways to see the whole chart →

Surest in the FinalsThe market’s chance each club wins the Finals once it gets there

Minnesota Timberwolves72% in the Finals9% to get thereYes 7¢
Oklahoma City Thunder65% in the Finals35% to get thereYes 23¢
San Antonio Spurs65% in the Finals33% to get thereYes 22¢
Denver Nuggets50% in the Finals5% to get thereYes 3¢
Miami Heat50% in the Finals11% to get thereYes 6¢

Shakiest in the FinalsContenders the market expects to struggle against the other conference

Detroit Pistons25% in the Finals6% to get thereYes 2¢
Indiana Pacers27% in the Finals6% to get thereYes 2¢
Toronto Raptors33% in the Finals8% to get thereYes 3¢
Boston Celtics36% in the Finals13% to get thereYes 5¢
Los Angeles Lakers38% in the Finals7% to get thereYes 3¢

METHOD

How these odds work

Every figure on this page is a live Kalshi market price. A contract on the 2026-27 NBA champion pays out at 100¢ if that club wins the title and nothing if it does not, so its price in cents reads directly as the market's implied chance in percent.

The board is ordered by that price, using the exact quote rather than the rounded figure printed in the column — two clubs a hundredth of a point apart would otherwise swap places between refreshes.

The conference column prices a strictly weaker claim: reaching the Finals rather than winning them. The gap between a club’s two numbers is roughly what the market implies about its chance of reaching the Finals and losing — not its chance of losing once it is there, which would be that gap measured against the conference price rather than against 100. The two contracts are also quoted independently, so the difference is an observation about two markets rather than a figure either one states.

A club’s Finals chance is its title price divided by its conference price: of the times the market expects it to reach the Finals, the share it expects the club to win. Only clubs priced at 5% or more to win their conference get one, because below that both prices sit a cent or two off the floor and their ratio means nothing. East against West, the favourite against the field and the half-the-chance count scale every title price down so the league adds to exactly 100% — raw prices add to more, because a longshot cannot trade below a cent.

FAQ

Questions

Who is favourite to win the 2026-27 NBA championship?

The Oklahoma City Thunder lead at 23% on Kalshi. That is the market price of their title contract, not a Kalshi forecast — it moves whenever traders disagree with it.

How are these NBA championship odds calculated?

They are not calculated — they are prices. Each club has a contract that pays 100¢ if it wins the title, so the price traders are willing to pay reads directly as an implied percentage. Where the bid and ask are close the page shows the midpoint; otherwise it shows the last trade.

What is the difference between the title and conference columns?

The title column prices winning the championship. The conference column prices only reaching the Finals, which is easier, so it is normally the higher of the two. The difference between them is roughly the market’s implied chance that the club reaches the Finals and loses. It is not the chance of losing the Finals having got there — that would be the difference measured against the conference price, not against 100 — and because the two contracts are quoted independently the difference is an observation about two markets rather than a number either states.

Do these odds add up to 100%?

Close to it, but not exactly, and the board does not normalise them. Each club’s contract is priced independently by traders, and the figures here are not all the same kind of observation — a tight book shows its midpoint, a wide one the last trade — so the column can sum a little above or a little below 100%. The gap is what independent pricing leaves behind, not a fee and not the cost of buying the field.

Is the East or the West favoured to win the 2026-27 NBA title?

The West: Kalshi's prices, scaled to add to 100%, give the Eastern Conference 40% and the Western Conference 60%.

Which NBA contender is likeliest to win the Finals if it gets there?

The Minnesota Timberwolves, of the 13 clubs priced at 5% or more to win their conference: 7% to win the title against 9% to win the West, so the market gives them 72% once they reach the Finals.

TEAMS

Every NBA team

NBA Championship Odds 2026-27

Kalshi's market-implied chance of each NBA team winning the 2026-27 championship. The Oklahoma City Thunder lead the board at 23%, ahead of all 30 teams priced on the same question.

Live marketUpdated Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026 · 2:19 AM ET

TITLE ODDS

2026-27 NBA title odds, best price first

30 of 30 teams priced.

2026-27 NBA title odds, best price first
Team	Title odds	7d	Conference	Trade
OKC Thunder	23%	+2pp	35%	Yes 23¢
SA Spurs	22%	−1pp	33%	Yes 22¢
PHI 76ers	11%	−3pp	22%	Yes 11¢
NY Knicks	9%	−1pp	21%	Yes 9¢
MIN Timberwolves	7%	+1pp	9%	Yes 7¢
MIA Heat	6%	−2pp	11%	Yes 6¢
BOS Celtics	5%	−1pp	13%	Yes 5¢
CLE Cavaliers	3%	−1pp	7%	Yes 3¢
DEN Nuggets	3%	−1pp	5%	Yes 3¢
LAL Lakers	3%	−2pp	7%	Yes 3¢
TOR Raptors	3%	−1pp	8%	Yes 3¢
DET Pistons	2%	−1pp	6%	Yes 2¢
GS Warriors	2%	−1pp	3%	Yes 2¢
HOU Rockets	2%	−1pp	4%	Yes 2¢
IND Pacers	2%	−1pp	6%	Yes 2¢
ORL Magic	2%	−1pp	3%	Yes 2¢
ATL Hawks	<1%	−1pp	3%	Yes 1¢
BKN Nets	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
CHA Hornets	<1%	−1pp	2%	Yes 1¢
CHI Bulls	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
DAL Mavericks	<1%	−1pp	1%	Yes 1¢
LAC Clippers	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
MEM Grizzlies	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
MIL Bucks	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
NO Pelicans	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
PHX Suns	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
POR Trail Blazers	<1%	−1pp	2%	Yes 1¢
SAC Kings	<1%	−1pp	<1%	Yes 1¢
UTA Jazz	<1%	−1pp	2%	Yes 1¢
WSH Wizards	<1%	−1pp	3%	Yes 1¢

THE SPLIT

Who wins the Finals once they get there?

East vs. West40% – 60%The market’s chance the title goes East, against the West: the West is favoured

The favourite vs. the field22%The Oklahoma City Thunder, about 1 in 5; the other clubs share the rest

Half the title chance3 clubsHow many clubs, likeliest first, hold half the market’s title chance between them

Surest in the Finals72%What the market gives the Minnesota Timberwolves to win the Finals once they reach it, the most of the 13 clubs priced at 5% or more to win their conference

2026-27 · As of Oct 13, 2026

NBA conference price vs. title price

Swipe sideways to see the whole chart →

Surest in the FinalsThe market’s chance each club wins the Finals once it gets there

Minnesota Timberwolves72% in the Finals9% to get thereYes 7¢
Oklahoma City Thunder65% in the Finals35% to get thereYes 23¢
San Antonio Spurs65% in the Finals33% to get thereYes 22¢
Denver Nuggets50% in the Finals5% to get thereYes 3¢
Miami Heat50% in the Finals11% to get thereYes 6¢

Shakiest in the FinalsContenders the market expects to struggle against the other conference

Detroit Pistons25% in the Finals6% to get thereYes 2¢
Indiana Pacers27% in the Finals6% to get thereYes 2¢
Toronto Raptors33% in the Finals8% to get thereYes 3¢
Boston Celtics36% in the Finals13% to get thereYes 5¢
Los Angeles Lakers38% in the Finals7% to get thereYes 3¢

METHOD

How these odds work

FAQ

Questions

Who is favourite to win the 2026-27 NBA championship?

The Oklahoma City Thunder lead at 23% on Kalshi. That is the market price of their title contract, not a Kalshi forecast — it moves whenever traders disagree with it.

How are these NBA championship odds calculated?

What is the difference between the title and conference columns?

Do these odds add up to 100%?

Is the East or the West favoured to win the 2026-27 NBA title?

The West: Kalshi's prices, scaled to add to 100%, give the Eastern Conference 40% and the Western Conference 60%.

Which NBA contender is likeliest to win the Finals if it gets there?

The Minnesota Timberwolves, of the 13 clubs priced at 5% or more to win their conference: 7% to win the title against 9% to win the West, so the market gives them 72% once they reach the Finals.

TEAMS

2026-27 NBA title odds, best price first

Who wins the Finals once they get there?

How these odds work

Questions

Related pages

Every NBA team

2026-27 NBA title odds, best price first

Who wins the Finals once they get there?

How these odds work

Questions

Related pages

Every NBA team