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  5. Championship Odds

NBA Championship Odds 2026-27

Kalshi's market-implied chance of each NBA team winning the 2026-27 championship. The Oklahoma City Thunder lead the board at 25%, ahead of all 30 teams priced on the same question.
Live marketUpdated Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026 · 5:28 PM ET
Where these numbers come from: Each figure is the market price of that club’s title contract — the mid-market quote where the book is tight, otherwise the last trade. Prices are not a forecast from Kalshi; they are what traders are paying.
TITLE ODDS

2026-27 NBA title odds, best price first

30 of 30 teams priced.
2026-27 NBA title odds, best price first
TeamTitle odds7dConferenceTrade
1OKC Thunder25%+3pp36%Yes 25¢
2SA Spurs21%−2pp33%Yes 21¢
3PHI 76ers11%−1pp22%Yes 11¢
4NY Knicks9%−1pp20%Yes 9¢
5MIN Timberwolves7%−2pp11%Yes 7¢
6BOS Celtics6%+1pp15%Yes 6¢
7MIA Heat5%+1pp11%Yes 5¢
8DEN Nuggets3%−1pp5%Yes 3¢
9DET Pistons3%+1pp7%Yes 3¢
10HOU Rockets3%+1pp4%Yes 3¢
11IND Pacers3%−1pp7%Yes 3¢
12LAL Lakers3%−1pp7%Yes 3¢
13TOR Raptors3%−1pp8%Yes 3¢
14CLE Cavaliers2%−2pp7%Yes 2¢
15GS Warriors2%−1pp3%Yes 2¢
16ORL Magic2%+1pp3%Yes 2¢
17POR Trail Blazers2%+1pp2%Yes 2¢
18ATL Hawks<1%−1pp3%Yes 1¢
19BKN Nets<1%−1pp<1%Yes 1¢
20CHA Hornets<1%−1pp2%Yes 1¢
21CHI Bulls<1%−1pp<1%Yes 1¢
22DAL Mavericks<1%−1pp2%Yes 1¢
23LAC Clippers<1%−1pp<1%Yes 1¢
24MEM Grizzlies<1%−1pp<1%Yes 1¢
25MIL Bucks<1%−1pp<1%Yes 1¢
26NO Pelicans<1%−1pp<1%Yes 1¢
27PHX Suns<1%−1pp<1%Yes 1¢
28SAC Kings<1%−1pp<1%Yes 1¢
29UTA Jazz<1%−1pp<1%Yes 1¢
30WSH Wizards<1%−1pp2%Yes 1¢
THE SPLIT

Who wins the Finals once they get there?

East against West, the favourite against the field and each contender’s title price against its conference price. The steeper a club sits on the chart, the likelier the market thinks it is to win a Finals it reaches.
East vs. West39% – 61%The market’s chance the title goes East, against the West: the West is favoured
The favourite vs. the field23%The Oklahoma City Thunder, about 1 in 4; the other clubs share the rest
Half the title chance3 clubsHow many clubs, likeliest first, hold half the market’s title chance between them
Surest in the Finals69%What the market gives the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the Finals once they reach it, the most of the 12 clubs priced at 5% or more to win their conference
2026-27 · As of Oct 21, 2026

NBA conference price vs. title price

Price to win the title →
0%5%10%15%20%25%10%20%30%40%ThunderOklahoma City Thunder36% to win the West25% to win the title69% to win the Finals once thereSpursSan Antonio Spurs33% to win the West21% to win the title63% to win the Finals once thereTimberwolvesMinnesota Timberwolves11% to win the West7% to win the title62% to win the Finals once therePhiladelphia 76ers22% to win the East11% to win the title48% to win the Finals once thereNew York Knicks20% to win the East9% to win the title44% to win the Finals once thereMiami Heat11% to win the East5% to win the title43% to win the Finals once thereDetroit Pistons7% to win the East3% to win the title38% to win the Finals once thereIndiana Pacers7% to win the East3% to win the title38% to win the Finals once thereLos Angeles Lakers7% to win the West3% to win the title38% to win the Finals once thereBoston Celtics15% to win the East6% to win the title38% to win the Finals once thereRaptorsToronto Raptors8% to win the East3% to win the title33% to win the Finals once thereCavaliersCleveland Cavaliers7% to win the East2% to win the title23% to win the Finals once there
Price to win the conference →
Swipe sideways to see the whole chart →
Surest in the FinalsThe market’s chance each club wins the Finals once it gets there
  1. 1Oklahoma City Thunder69% in the Finals36% to get thereYes 25¢
  2. 2San Antonio Spurs63% in the Finals33% to get thereYes 21¢
  3. 3Minnesota Timberwolves62% in the Finals11% to get thereYes 7¢
  4. 4Philadelphia 76ers48% in the Finals22% to get thereYes 11¢
  5. 5New York Knicks44% in the Finals20% to get thereYes 9¢
Shakiest in the FinalsContenders the market expects to struggle against the other conference
  1. 1Cleveland Cavaliers23% in the Finals7% to get thereYes 2¢
  2. 2Toronto Raptors33% in the Finals8% to get thereYes 3¢
  3. 3Boston Celtics38% in the Finals15% to get thereYes 6¢
  4. 4Los Angeles Lakers38% in the Finals7% to get thereYes 3¢
  5. 5Indiana Pacers38% in the Finals7% to get thereYes 3¢
METHOD

How these odds work

Every figure on this page is a live Kalshi market price. A contract on the 2026-27 NBA champion pays out at 100¢ if that club wins the title and nothing if it does not, so its price in cents reads directly as the market's implied chance in percent.

The board is ordered by that price, using the exact quote rather than the rounded figure printed in the column — two clubs a hundredth of a point apart would otherwise swap places between refreshes.

The conference column prices a strictly weaker claim: reaching the Finals rather than winning them. The gap between a club’s two numbers is roughly what the market implies about its chance of reaching the Finals and losing — not its chance of losing once it is there, which would be that gap measured against the conference price rather than against 100. The two contracts are also quoted independently, so the difference is an observation about two markets rather than a figure either one states.

A club’s Finals chance is its title price divided by its conference price: of the times the market expects it to reach the Finals, the share it expects the club to win. Only clubs priced at 5% or more to win their conference get one, because below that both prices sit a cent or two off the floor and their ratio means nothing. East against West, the favourite against the field and the half-the-chance count scale every title price down so the league adds to exactly 100% — raw prices add to more, because a longshot cannot trade below a cent.

FAQ

Questions

Who is favourite to win the 2026-27 NBA championship?
The Oklahoma City Thunder lead at 25% on Kalshi. That is the market price of their title contract, not a Kalshi forecast — it moves whenever traders disagree with it.
How are these NBA championship odds calculated?
They are not calculated — they are prices. Each club has a contract that pays 100¢ if it wins the title, so the price traders are willing to pay reads directly as an implied percentage. Where the bid and ask are close the page shows the midpoint; otherwise it shows the last trade.
What is the difference between the title and conference columns?
The title column prices winning the championship. The conference column prices only reaching the Finals, which is easier, so it is normally the higher of the two. The difference between them is roughly the market’s implied chance that the club reaches the Finals and loses. It is not the chance of losing the Finals having got there — that would be the difference measured against the conference price, not against 100 — and because the two contracts are quoted independently the difference is an observation about two markets rather than a number either states.
Do these odds add up to 100%?
Close to it, but not exactly, and the board does not normalise them. Each club’s contract is priced independently by traders, and the figures here are not all the same kind of observation — a tight book shows its midpoint, a wide one the last trade — so the column can sum a little above or a little below 100%. The gap is what independent pricing leaves behind, not a fee and not the cost of buying the field.
Is the East or the West favoured to win the 2026-27 NBA title?
The West: Kalshi's prices, scaled to add to 100%, give the Eastern Conference 39% and the Western Conference 61%.
Which NBA contender is likeliest to win the Finals if it gets there?
The Oklahoma City Thunder, of the 12 clubs priced at 5% or more to win their conference: 25% to win the title against 36% to win the West, so the market gives them 69% once they reach the Finals.
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NBA championship market

NBA Champion

Buy Yes if you think the team wins it. Buy No if you think it won't.
  • OKC Thunder25%
    Yes 25¢No 76¢
  • SA Spurs21%
    Yes 21¢No 80¢
  • PHI 76ers11%
    Yes 11¢No 90¢
  • NY Knicks9%
    Yes 9¢No 92¢
  • MIN Timberwolves7%
    Yes 7¢No 94¢
    • BOS Celtics6%
      Yes 6¢No 95¢
    • MIA Heat5%
      Yes 5¢No 96¢
    • DEN Nuggets3%
      Yes 3¢No 98¢