Our mission

Kalshi Research produces and supports rigorous, data-driven analysis of prediction markets: how they work, when they're accurate, and what they reveal about the future. We collaborate with academics, analysts, and institutions to advance the science of forecasting.

Themes

Where we focus

Calibration

Studying whether prediction-market probabilities match realized outcome frequencies over time, and how calibration evolves as markets mature.

Market Microstructure

How order flow, liquidity, fees, and trader composition shape price discovery in event-contract markets.

Prediction Accuracy

Evaluating the comparative performance of prediction market forecasts relative to alternative forecasting methods such as polls, expert opinions, consensus, and statistical models.

Participant Heterogeneity

Analyzing how diversity among traders (in location, demography, skill, information, or strategy) affects market positioning and outcomes including efficiency and forecasting quality.

Belief Updating Dynamics

Reviewing how traders revise forecasts in response to new information, including which sources and signal types drive price changes, how evidence is weighed (systematically or intuitively) within and across markets, and what factors determine information incorporation or rejection.

Real-World Impact

Assessing how prediction market forecasts are used by key stakeholders in organizational decision-making, policy formation, or resource allocation.