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United States 2026

2026 Midterms Research Grant

Kalshi is awarding up to $1 million in grants to up to 50 research projects on midterm prediction markets. Bring your best ideas, and we will provide any publicly available Kalshi data you need.
  • Up to $1 million in grants
  • ·Up to 50 projects
  • ·Apply by November 18
Apply nowOfficial Rules
How to enter

Two ways to apply

Apply here

Submit the application below with a proposal of up to two pages, by 11:59 PM ET on November 18.Go to the application

Enter on X

Quote the @Kalshi announcement post with your research idea by November 18. We will send you the application to complete by November 20.@Kalshi on X

  1. Nov 10

    Applications open

  2. Nov 18

    Applications close at 11:59 PM ET. Entered on X? Complete the form by Nov 20.

  3. Nov 21 to 26

    Judging

  4. Nov 27

    Grantees notified, on or about this date
Call for research

Questions we're thinking about

A few questions we are especially interested in, but we are open to other ideas.

Election night

How quickly did prices respond to early returns and race calls, and which signals moved them?

Markets and polls

How did market prices and polling averages move relative to each other over the campaign?

Sparsely polled races

What do markets show about House and Senate races where polling was sparse or absent?

Calibration

How well did market probabilities match results across race types and time before the election?

News and prices

Which debates, announcements, and campaign events moved prices, and for how long?

Trading activity

How did trading activity differ across races and states, and how did it change as the election approached?

Your own question

Any other question about the 2026 midterms that prediction market data can help answer is welcome.Propose it in your application
Start here

Our midterms research so far

November 2026

Trade Watch: Mapping the Midterms

The midterm markets traded most by residents of each state, from Kalshi trading activity.
ReadKalshi Research
November 2026

Kalshi and the 2026 Midterms: Calibration and Accuracy

Prediction markets, elections, calibration, Brier score, Kalshi
ReadKalshi Research
November 2026

How Midterms Move Markets: S&P500 Futures

How S&P500 futures moved around past elections, and how prediction markets can illuminate real-time repricing during the 2026 Midterms.
ReadKalshi Research
September 2026

Over a Barrel: Midterm Elections and Oil

Gas prices have tracked President Trump's approval all year, and Democratic Senate control has climbed to a cycle-high 60% as oil is repriced for a longer Hormuz disruption. Midwest refinery outages are pushing pump prices fastest in states with contested Senate seats.
ReadKalshi Research
Apply

Submit your proposal

Aim for one page, with a maximum of two pages, covering:
  • The research question you are looking to answer
  • Why it matters
  • The data you plan to analyze, including the prediction market data
  • Your proposed methodology
  • The public output you plan to produce, such as a paper, report, dataset, dashboard, or code
Proposals must be in English. One application per person.No purchase, deposit, or trading is necessary to enter, and neither a Kalshi account nor an X account is required. Grants are awarded under the Official Rules and are subject to a grant agreement. Submitting a proposal does not guarantee funding. Questions? Email research@kalshi.com.

2026 Kalshi Midterms Research Grant Application

Proposal (PDF, one to two pages)
or drag and dropPDF only, up to 3MB
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