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Publications

October 2026

Who Calibrates Markets? Evidence from Trader Micro-Data

Prediction markets, price discovery, forecast skill, Brier score, market microstructure
ReadKalshi Research
September 2026

Who Trades Prediction Markets?

Prediction Markets, Trader Composition, Numeracy, Probabilistic Reasoning, Kalshi
ReadKalshi Research
August 2026

Calibration In Prediction Markets – Theory and Evidence

Prediction markets, calibration, Brier score, reliability diagrams, market microstructure
ReadKalshi Research
January 2026

Slowly, Then All At Once: What Mamdani's Victory Tells Us About Information Aggregation

Prediction markets, politics, electability, polling vs behavior, market microstructure
ReadKalshi Research
January 2025

Beyond Consensus: Prediction Markets and the Forecasting of Inflation Shocks

Prediction markets, forecasting, consensus estimates, shock alpha, macroeconomic indicators
ReadKalshi Research
February 2026

Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets

Macroeconomics, forecasting, Federal Reserve, expectations, prediction markets
federalreserve.govExternal
February 2026

LLM as a Risk Manager: Semantic Filtering for Lead-Lag Trading in Prediction Markets

LLM, lead-lag trading, prediction markets, Granger causality, risk management
arxiv.orgCo-Authored
February 2026

Forecasting Future Language: Context Design for Mention Markets

LLM, mention markets, forecasting, earnings calls, market-conditioned prompting
arxiv.orgCo-Authored
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