Insights
August 2026
The Citizen Debt Forecast (CDF) layers a continuously repriced macro path on top of the CBO fiscal baseline, turning a static forecast into a live scenario framework for how growth, inflation, and rates move America's debt path.The Kalshi Citizen Debt Forecast (CDF)
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August 2026
U.S. weather and climate disasters now run well over $150 billion a year. Across roughly 70,000 resolved daily weather markets per horizon, Kalshi prices track outcomes closely, and exchange-traded, city-and-day contracts open weather hedging to the small businesses the traditional OTC market never served.Weathering The Storm: Hedging Climate Risk
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August 2026
September rate decisions have split three ways: Japan and the Euro Area priced to hike on energy and a weak currency, the U.S., UK, Canada, and Australia to hold, and Brazil to cut. A tour of the rate-FX feedback loop through Kalshi markets, from the yen to the Brazilian real.Global Macro Roundup
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August 2026
The Kalshi American Power Index (KPOW) pools binary prediction markets into a single anchored sentiment indicator for control of Congress and the White House. It has slid from R +10 in mid-2025 to roughly Even heading into the 2026 Midterms.KPOW: The Kalshi American Power Index – Explained
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August 2026
Kalshi market-implied CPI forecasts have converged to 3.3% headline and 2.4% core year over year, a tick below the Cleveland Fed nowcast and consensus, with the implied distribution skewed to the upside on Middle East energy and tariff pass-through.July CPI Print Preview: A Tale of Upside Risk
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August 2026
SpaceX reports its first earnings since its record June IPO. Kalshi markets read the call as a compute story, not a rocket story, price orbital data centers as more than a half-decade away, and put the competition to the moon at a 63.4% chance Blue Origin beats SpaceX and ~40% that China does.SpaceX Earnings: Pricing Elon's Trillion-Dollar AI Space Story
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July 2026
Kalshi markets are pricing a fifth straight hold at 3.50–3.75% going into the July 29 FOMC meeting, with inflation risk skewed to the upside. A read on rates, the data, and how to navigate a Fed with less forward guidance.FOMC Preview: July 29 Meeting
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July 2026
By 2050 the total value of the sports industry is expected to top $8.8 trillion, and the financial exposures around it grow in parallel. Using the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a case study, Kalshi markets offer an accessible way to hedge sports risk at a 16.5–50% cost saving on traditional channels.Hedging Sports Risk: A World Cup Case Study
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July 2026
Compute prices have been supported by supply constraints and demand pressures that our markets are expecting to ease over the coming months. Risks persist, however, in potential grid interconnection delays, prolonged geopolitical conflict, and a shifting legislative landscape around data center construction.The Economics of Compute
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