Kalshi Research

Insights

August 2026

July CPI Print Preview: A Tale of Upside Risk

Kalshi market-implied CPI forecasts have converged to 3.3% headline and 2.4% core year over year, a tick below the Cleveland Fed nowcast and consensus, with the implied distribution skewed to the upside on Middle East energy and tariff pass-through.
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August 2026

SpaceX Earnings: Pricing Elon's Trillion-Dollar AI Space Story

SpaceX reports its first earnings since its record June IPO. Kalshi markets read the call as a compute story, not a rocket story, price orbital data centers as more than a half-decade away, and put the competition to the moon at a 63.4% chance Blue Origin beats SpaceX and ~40% that China does.
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July 2026

FOMC Preview: July 29 Meeting

Kalshi markets are pricing a fifth straight hold at 3.50–3.75% going into the July 29 FOMC meeting, with inflation risk skewed to the upside. A read on rates, the data, and how to navigate a Fed with less forward guidance.
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July 2026

Hedging Sports Risk: A World Cup Case Study

By 2050 the total value of the sports industry is expected to top $8.8 trillion, and the financial exposures around it grow in parallel. Using the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a case study, Kalshi markets offer an accessible way to hedge sports risk at a 16.5–50% cost saving on traditional channels.
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July 2026

The Economics of Compute

Compute prices have been supported by supply constraints and demand pressures that our markets are expecting to ease over the coming months. Risks persist, however, in potential grid interconnection delays, prolonged geopolitical conflict, and a shifting legislative landscape around data center construction.
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