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September 2026

Over a Barrel: Midterm Elections and Oil

Gas prices have tracked President Trump's approval all year, and Democratic Senate control has climbed to a cycle-high 60% as oil is repriced for a longer Hormuz disruption. Midwest refinery outages are pushing pump prices fastest in states with contested Senate seats.
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September 2026

September FOMC Meeting Preview: A Hike Is Priced In, But What's Next?

A 25bp September hike is now the base case in Kalshi markets. Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole debut, a 162,000 payrolls beat, oil back above $100, and a nervous long end have the Fed priced to tighten even as core CPI hits a five-year low.
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September 2026

American Perpetuals

A perpetual is a structurally simpler and more cost-effective way to hold continuous exposure. Kalshi perps track spot closely and symmetrically, and round-the-clock gold and silver trading brings that structure to the market where the roll hurts most.
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September 2026

Last Hope For Holding: August CPI Print Preview

The gasoline base effect that flattered the last two prints has run out. Kalshi prices August headline CPI at 3.3% year over year with core at 2.4%, but the monthly pace steps up to roughly +0.4%, and the print lands five days before an FOMC decision the market has close to even.
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August 2026

The Kalshi Citizen Debt Forecast (CDF)

The Citizen Debt Forecast (CDF) layers a continuously repriced macro path on top of the CBO fiscal baseline, turning a static forecast into a live scenario framework for how growth, inflation, and rates move America's debt path.
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August 2026

Weathering The Storm: Hedging Climate Risk

U.S. weather and climate disasters now run well over $150 billion a year. Across roughly 70,000 resolved daily weather markets per horizon, Kalshi prices track outcomes closely, and exchange-traded, city-and-day contracts open weather hedging to the small businesses the traditional OTC market never served.
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August 2026

Global Macro Roundup

September rate decisions have split three ways: Japan and the Euro Area priced to hike on energy and a weak currency, the U.S., UK, Canada, and Australia to hold, and Brazil to cut. A tour of the rate-FX feedback loop through Kalshi markets, from the yen to the Brazilian real.
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August 2026

KPOW: The Kalshi American Power Index – Explained

The Kalshi American Power Index (KPOW) pools binary prediction markets into a single anchored sentiment indicator for control of Congress and the White House. It has slid from R +10 in mid-2025 to roughly Even heading into the 2026 Midterms.
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August 2026

July CPI Print Preview: A Tale of Upside Risk

Kalshi market-implied CPI forecasts have converged to 3.3% headline and 2.4% core year over year, a tick below the Cleveland Fed nowcast and consensus, with the implied distribution skewed to the upside on Middle East energy and tariff pass-through.
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August 2026

SpaceX Earnings: Pricing Elon's Trillion-Dollar AI Space Story

SpaceX reports its first earnings since its record June IPO. Kalshi markets read the call as a compute story, not a rocket story, price orbital data centers as more than a half-decade away, and put the competition to the moon at a 63.4% chance Blue Origin beats SpaceX and ~40% that China does.
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July 2026

FOMC Preview: July 29 Meeting

Kalshi markets are pricing a fifth straight hold at 3.50–3.75% going into the July 29 FOMC meeting, with inflation risk skewed to the upside. A read on rates, the data, and how to navigate a Fed with less forward guidance.
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July 2026

Hedging Sports Risk: A World Cup Case Study

By 2050 the total value of the sports industry is expected to top $8.8 trillion, and the financial exposures around it grow in parallel. Using the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a case study, Kalshi markets offer an accessible way to hedge sports risk at a 16.5–50% cost saving on traditional channels.
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July 2026

The Economics of Compute

Compute prices have been supported by supply constraints and demand pressures that our markets are expecting to ease over the coming months. Risks persist, however, in potential grid interconnection delays, prolonged geopolitical conflict, and a shifting legislative landscape around data center construction.
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