Economic Indicators Odds & Predictions 2026

Economics

Jobs & Economy

Unemployment in April 2026

Above 4.3%

2.01x

Above 4.2%

1.46x

$293 vol10 markets

Oil and energy

US gas prices tomorrow

Above 4.100

1.15x

Above 4.115

2.40x

$3,500 vol15 markets

Growth

ISM Manufacturing PMI in April 2026

At least 52

1.57x

At least 53

2.98x

$404 vol8 markets

Growth

US manufacturing construction spending in December 2026

Above $180 billion

3.66x

Above $190 billion

5.25x

$9 vol5 markets

Jobs & Economy

US Challenger job cuts in April

Above 60,000

1.50x

Above 75,000

2.14x

$0 vol6 markets

Jobs & Economy

Jobs numbers in December 2025?

Above 0

Yes

Above -25,000

Yes

$626,637 vol13 markets

Inflation

How high will the inflation level get in 2025?

At least 3%

Yes

At least 4%

$548,519 vol4 markets

Jobs & Economy

ADP employment change in December 2025?

Above 25000

Yes

Above -25000

Yes

$91,697 vol7 markets

Inflation

How much will core PCE increase in September 2025?

Above 0.1%

Yes

Above 0.0%

Yes

$11,124 vol5 markets

Growth

How many companies will go bankrupt in 2025?

Above 694

Yes

Above 500

Yes

$7,789 vol3 markets

Housing

Housing prices up in the US in 2025?

Above 2%

Above 2.5%

$0 vol3 markets

Elections

December 2025 CPI Combo: CPI & CPI (YoY)

CPI: Above -0.1%, YOYCPI: Above 2.4%

Yes

CPI: Above 0.1%, YOYCPI: Above 2.9%

$262,789 vol5 markets

Elections

December 2025 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP

U3: >4.6%, NFP: <50k

U3: 4.5%, NFP: 50-75k

$113,588 vol14 markets

Elections

November 2025 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP

Unemployment rate (U3): 4.5%, Non-farm payroll growth: 50-75k

Unemployment rate (U3): 4.4%, Non-farm payroll growth: 100-125k

$339,493 vol5 markets