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Employment Odds & Predictions 2026
Economics
Jobs & Economy
Jobs numbers in November 2025?
Above 0
Yes
Above -100,000
Yes
$637,808 vol
10 markets
Jobs & Economy
Unemployment in December 2025?
Above 4.3%
Yes
Above 4.0%
Yes
$842,236 vol
10 markets
Economics
More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?
Yes
No
$477,194 vol
1 market
Jobs & Economy
ADP employment change in December 2025?
Above 25000
Yes
Above -25000
Yes
$91,697 vol
7 markets
Growth
Will wages be above inflation in 2025?
Yes
No
$85,570 vol
1 market
Growth
Tech layoffs up in December 2025?
Yes
No
$55,918 vol
1 market
Jobs & Economy
Unemployment rate in December 2025?
Exactly 4.4%
Yes
Exactly 4.6%
No
$54,060 vol
23 markets
Elections
Elections
November 2025 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP
Unemployment rate (U3): 4.5%, Non-farm payroll growth: 50-75k
No
Unemployment rate (U3): 4.4%, Non-farm payroll growth: 100-125k
No
$339,493 vol
5 markets
Elections
December 2025 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP
U3: >4.6%, NFP: <50k
No
U3: 4.5%, NFP: 50-75k
No
$113,588 vol
14 markets
Politics
Politics
Federal minimum wage raised in 2025?
Yes
No
$95,455 vol
1 market
Employment Odds & Predictions
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