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Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.

Primary Elections

United States 2026
US flag

Primary Elections

United States 2026

2026 Primary Elections

US flag

Trending

1
Fed decision in March?Fed maintains rate
99%––
2
Who will attend the Oscars?Connor Storrie
1%
▼27
3
2028 Democratic nominee for President?Gavin Newsom
29%
▲1

2026 Primaries

1
How many House Republicans will lose their primary this year?7 or more
45%––
2
How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary this year?2
45%
▲2
3
Democratic Senate primaries comboYes
60%
▲2

Top movers

1
Number of US oil rigs at end of 2026At least 430
10%
▼89
2
Pro Baseball Wins LeaderZac Gallen
2%
▼97
3
Who will be featured on Yeat's next album?Drake
2%
▼97

New

1
Which wildlife will be on the Bank of England banknote shortlist?Robin
60%––
2
Who will attend Trump's crypto & business conference?Jack Lu
40%––
3
Will Meredith Marks appear in an episode of RHOSLC?Meredith Marks
34%––

Highest volume

1
2028 Democratic nominee for President?Gavin Newsom
$61,437,842 vol39 markets
29%
▲1
2
Men's College Basketball ChampionDuke
$59,414,864 vol68 markets
22%
▲2
3
Pro Basketball Champion?Oklahoma City
$40,166,486 vol30 markets
39%––
Markets over MonopoliesHow fair markets protect consumers
Responsible TradingTools and tips for trading smart
Market IntegrityLearn how Kalshi prevents insider trading

Primary Elections

United States 2026
US flag

Primary Elections

United States 2026

2026 Primary Elections

US flag

Politics

Congress

How long will the government shutdown last?

At least 60 days
1.97x
At least 55 days
1.62x
$4,503,686 vol21 markets
Markets over MonopoliesHow fair markets protect consumers
Responsible TradingTools and tips for trading smart
Market IntegrityLearn how Kalshi prevents insider trading
Congress

Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?

Before Jan 21, 2029
1.67x
Before 2027
6.67x
$224,888 vol3 markets
Trump

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Before 2027
5.25x
Before August
11.7x
$1,376,295 vol9 markets
International

What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

Between 10% and 19.99%
1.35x
Between 20% and 29.99%
5.26x
$42,791 vol7 markets

Elections

US Elections

2028 Democratic nominee for President?

Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom
3.33x
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
11.1x
$61,437,842 vol39 markets
US Elections

2028 Republican nominee for President?

J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance
2.63x
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
3.70x
$22,096,109 vol30 markets
US Elections

Which party will win the U.S. House?

Democratic Party
Democratic Party
1.18x
Republican Party
Republican Party
6.25x
$6,806,523 vol2 markets
US Elections

Texas Senate winner?

Republican party
Republican party
1.75x
James Talarico
James Talarico
2.33x
$1,729,262 vol2 markets

Companies

AI

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

OpenAI
1.72x
xAI
2.13x
$854,994 vol14 markets
Elon Musk

Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

350000 or more
1.72x
360000 or more
1.96x
$444,243 vol12 markets
BTC

When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?

Before January 2027
2.22x
Before October 2026
2.86x
$3,763,855 vol8 markets
IPOs

Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year?

OpenAI
OpenAI
1.92x
Anthropic
Anthropic
2.13x
$990,234 vol28 markets

Economics

Employment

State of the economy at the end of 2026

Soft landing
1.89x
Stagflation
4.35x
$7,118 vol4 markets
Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Exactly 1 cut
3.70x
Exactly 0 cuts
4.00x
$2,090,787 vol21 markets
Employment

More tech layoffs in 20​26 than in 2025?

Yes
1.16x
No
6.29x
$2,338,444 vol1 market
Employment

How high will unemployment get before 2030?

Above 9%
2.00x
Above 8%
1.67x
$9,165 vol10 markets

Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

MarketPays outOdds
Republican Party
Republican Party
1.90x
Democratic Party
Democratic Party
1.93x
$2,412,412 vol

News · Democrats may have new opportunities to compete for Senate seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Montana as the 2026 midterms approach, according to a political analysis, The Hill Reports. The races could determine control of the chamber as the elections are framed as a referendum on the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term.

Men's Round of 64 Qualifiers

MarketPays outOdds
Texas
Texas
1.86x
North Carolina St.
North Carolina St.
1.86x
$3,532,123 vol6 markets

News · The 68-team field for the men’s national college basketball tournament will be announced at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, giving fans their first look at the full bracket, USA TODAY Reports. The reveal comes after most conference championship games wrapped up this weekend, allowing teams and fans to begin preparing for the opening round matchups.

Men's College Basketball Champion

MarketPays outOdds
Duke
Duke
4.31x
Michigan
Michigan
5.25x
$59,414,393 vol66 markets

News · The 68-team field for the men's national college basketball tournament was unveiled Sunday, with Duke earning the top overall seed in the East Region after winning the ACC title, NBC Sports reports. Michigan, Florida, and Arizona also secured No. 1 seeds as teams prepare for the First Four games starting March 17 in Dayton, Ohio.

Average traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Apr 1, 2026?

MarketPays outOdds
Above 20
2.19x
Above 10
1.48x
$41,722 vol7 markets

News · Commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stopped, with no confirmed ship transits in either direction over the past 24 hours, Bloomberg Reports. The shutdown comes as as heightened risks keep oil markets on edge.

Recession this year?

MarketPays outOdds
Yes
2.98x
No
1.42x
$686,976 vol

News · Dow futures dropped more than 600 points after crude oil climbed above $100 a barrel, raising fears of stagflation as inflation risks rise while economic growth slows, CNBC reports. Analysts warn that a prolonged oil shock could leave the Federal Reserve stuck between rising prices and weakening economic activity.

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

MarketPays outOdds
Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom
4.98x
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
5.25x
$18,729,340 vol22 markets

News · Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s chances in the race for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination have risen amid the U.S. conflict with Iran, Newsweek reports. Vice President JD Vance still leads the field, while an Emerson College poll of likely primary voters shows Vance with a majority and Rubio a distant second.
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