Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?
Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?
Chance
Before August 2026
7.4%
▲ 0.2
Before August 2026
7.4%
▲ 0.2
Before 2026
No
Before 2026
No
Market Rules
Before August 2026
If Trump's Executive Order ending birthright citizenship comes into effect for any period after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.
"Into effect" means that there are no federal courts prohibiting the order from going into effect. If the Executive Order is withdrawn, then the market immediately resolves to No. If the Supreme Court rules that the order is not constitutional, then the market immediately resolves to No (and the reverse if they rule that the order is constitutional).
Timeline and payout
Market openDec 5, 2025 · 5:00pm EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKX14AMENDCASE
EventKX14AMENDCASE-26
MarketKX14AMENDCASE-26-AUG
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