President's 538 approval rating at the end of the year?
President's 538 approval rating at the end of the year?
37% or above
Yes
37% or above
Yes
38% or above
No
38% or above
No
39% or above
No
39% or above
No
7 more
Market Rules
37% or above
If the President's approval rating according to FiveThirtyEight is above 36.9% on December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FiveThirtyEight.
The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2024. The market will expire at the sooner of the 10:00 AM on the the the first day after December 31, 2024 in which data is available for December 31, 2024, or one week after December 31, 2024.
Timeline and payout
Market openJan 3, 2024 · 10:00am EST
Market closedDec 31, 2024 · 11:59pm EST
Paid outJan 1, 2025 · 11:00am EST
SeriesKX538APPROVEY
Event538APPROVEY-24DEC31
Market538APPROVEY-24DEC31-T36.9
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
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About
Will Biden's approval rating rebound in 2024? The president's future hangs in the balance, as voters weigh in on his handling of the economy, inflation, and the war in Ukraine. 538 calculates its approval rating by averaging polls from a variety of sources, weighted by their accuracy and methodology.