Which of these African leaders will leave office next?
Which of these African leaders will leave office next?
Chance
Bola Tinubu
President of Nigeria
33%
Bola Tinubu
President of Nigeria
33%
Emmerson Mnangagwa
President of Zimbabwe
20%
Emmerson Mnangagwa
President of Zimbabwe
20%
William Ruto
President of Kenya
5%
William Ruto
President of Kenya
5%
7 more
Important information: In the event of death, the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death, unless such a price is not available, not logically consistent, or not representative of a fair settlement value, in which case the Exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.
Market Rules
Bola Tinubu
If the President of Nigeria is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, ABC, NBC, MSNBC, Semafor, Axios, The Information, Fox News, Politico, Bloomberg, and AP.
An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.
Timeline and payout
Market openFeb 6, 2025 · 10:00am EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXAFRICALEADEROUT
EventKXAFRICALEADEROUT-35
MarketKXAFRICALEADEROUT-35-BT
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
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