Will any top AI company decide to not release their best models this year?

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Before 2026

Order book

Rules summary

If any of OpenAI, xAI, Anthropic, or Google announce that they will no longer release frontier AI models to the public before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI.

An announcement is sufficient to resolve the market to yes, even if the policy is not in effect until after . Releasing frontier models only behind a paywall is not sufficient to resolve the market to "Yes".

Timeline and payout

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