Who will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
Chance
John Brennan
50%
▼ 2
John Brennan
50%
▼ 2
Letitia James
32%
Letitia James
32%
James Clapper
25%
James Clapper
25%
More markets
Market Rules
John Brennan
If John Brennan is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from CNBC, law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.
Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
Timeline and payout
Market openJul 23, 2025 · 10:00am EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXARREST
EventKXARREST-27JAN
MarketKXARREST-27JAN-JBRE
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.