How many Senators will vote for Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence?

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Before Aug 2025

% Chance

$700,832vol

48 or fewer

Or no vote

43%

-3

48 or fewer

Or no vote

43%

-3

-2

29%

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Rules summary for

48 or fewer

If below 49 Senators vote in favor of confirming Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Senate.

Ranges are inclusive. Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

About

Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman and Army reservist, has been nominated by President-elect Trump as Director of National Intelligence. Once a Bernie Sanders ally, she left the Democratic Party in 2022 and endorsed Trump in 2024. Gabbard’s anti-interventionist stance has drawn bipartisan criticism for echoing Russian narratives and meeting with Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Her controversial views are likely to make her Senate confirmation contentious. (The Hill)

What's happening

New

Tulsi Gabbard's nomination as Director of National Intelligence faces significant opposition due to her lack of experience in the intelligence field and her controversial views on foreign policy, particularly her opposition to U.S. intervention in Ukraine and her past defense of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Senate Democrats are expected to scrutinize her nomination closely, with many expressing concerns about her ability to lead the intelligence community effectively. The outcome of the confirmation vote remains uncertain, but Gabbard's unconventional background and divisive political history suggest that she may struggle to win over enough bipartisan support to secure confirmation.

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