Important information: For this iteration of the LLM1 event, all markets will resolve to No in the case of a tie. When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Best AI at the end of 2025?
Best AI at the end of 2025?
Gemini
Google
Yes
Gemini
Google
Yes
ChatGPT
OpenAI
No
ChatGPT
OpenAI
No
Grok
xAI
No
Grok
xAI
No
4 more
Market Rules
Gemini
If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).
If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then all the strikes for this market will resolve to No. This event is not affected by the amendment that is effective in April 2025.
Timeline and payout
Market openNov 5, 2024 · 10:00am EST
Market closedDec 31, 2025 · 10:00am EST
Paid outDec 31, 2025 · 11:00am EST
SeriesKXLLM1
EventKXLLM1-25DEC31
MarketKXLLM1-25DEC31-GOOG
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
The Large Language Model (LLM) market is highly competitive, with several key players vying for dominance. LLMs are becoming essential components of the digital world, enabling sophisticated search tools and better customer service across various industries. The global LLM market was valued at US$6.66 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.71%, reaching an estimated US$41.17 billion by 2030.