Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

United States 42%

China 19%

India 10%

Live bets: Kalshi.com

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Before 2031

% Chance

$10,431vol

United States

42%

United States

42%

China

19%

China

19%

India

10%

India

10%

2 more markets

Rules summary for

United States

If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times.

If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.

Timeline and payout

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