Important information: To be clear, the Payout Criterion requires that a country "launch a manned mission to the Moon.”
Accordingly, the Artemis II mission, which is a crewed lunar flyby and systems-validation flight with no planned lunar surface operations, does not meet the Payout Criterion.
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
Chance
United States
54%
United States
54%
China
41%
▼ 7.9
China
41%
▼ 7.9
Russia
3%
Russia
3%
2 more
Market Rules
United States
If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times.
If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.
Timeline and payout
Market openNov 28, 2024 · 10:00am EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXMOONMAN
EventKXMOONMAN-31
MarketKXMOONMAN-31-USA
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Market suggested by 
@BumblingBayesian