When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2026 13%
Before 2030 64%
1D
1W
1M
ALL
AGI
Chance
$187,883vol
Before 2026
13%
▲ 1
Before 2030
64%
Before 2025
No
Rules summary for
Before 2030
If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from OpenAI.
Timeline and payout
About
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a hypothetical (for the moment) type of AI with advanced reasoning skills on par with (or more advanced than) humans. In other words, it's AI that is our intellectual equal or superior. While current chatbots based on large language models (like ChatGPT) are incredibly powerful and complex, they are a far cry from human intelligence. But with constant improvements being made at such a rapid pace, what seems like a 'far cry' might end up being a much shorter timeframe than people realize.
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When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
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