Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year?
Before 2026
% Chance
$329,851vol
Anthropic
41%
Deepseek
33%
Alibaba
19%
7 more markets
Rules summary for
Anthropic
If Anthropic has a sole #1 ranked AI model (checked at 10am ET daily) before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard.
Timeline and payout
Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year?
Buy Yes · AnthropicBuy
Sell
Dollars
Pick a side