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Tsunami before 2026?

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chance
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NovNovNovNovApr50%62.5%75%87.5%100%
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Before 2026 (+0)
$16,120vol

Yes


Rules summary
The outcome is Yes
If a tsunami of at least 1m high maximum waves occurs between November 5th, 2024 and Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from NCEI.

Timeline and payout

About
A tsunami advisory was issued for the US West Coast on April 5, 2024, due to volcanic activity in Tonga. On the same day, a magnitude 4.8 earthquake occurred off the East Coast, but no tsunami warning, advisory, watch, or threat was issued. Additionally, a video circulating on social media, which was initially believed to show a woman taking a selfie during a tsunami, was later determined to be a tidal bore event in Indonesia, not a tsunami.
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