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Who will advance from the WA-04 primary? Odds & Predictions 2026
Elections
·
Primaries
Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?
Elections
·
Primaries
Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?
Begins in
41 days
·
Aug 4, 8:00am EDT
Chance
John Duresky
Democratic
65%
Yes
71¢
No
36¢
John Duresky
Democratic
65%
Yes
71¢
No
36¢
Matt Boehnke
52%
Yes
53¢
No
63¢
Matt Boehnke
52%
Yes
53¢
No
63¢
Jerrod Sessler
22%
Yes
27¢
No
80¢
Jerrod Sessler
22%
Yes
27¢
No
80¢
3 more
Market Rules
Amanda McKinney
Resolves Yes if
Amanda McKinney advances to the general election in WA-4 in 2026
.
Outcome verified from
The Source Agencies are
,
in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer
,
the Federal Election Commission
,
state board of elections or canvassing board
,
relevant county clerk or board of elections
,
relevant city/municipal clerk
, and
Attorney General of the United States
.
View full rules
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Report Insider Trading
Timeline and payout
Market open
Dec 17, 2025 · 9:00pm EST
Market closes
After the outcome occurs
Projected payout
30 minutes after closing
This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Nov 3, 2026 at 10:00am EST.
Series
KXWA4PRIMARY
Event
KXWA4PRIMARY-26
Market
KXWA4PRIMARY-26-AMCK
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event
Primary Elections
United States 2026
Primary Elections
United States 2026
2026 Primary Elections
$17,926 vol
1D
1W
1M
ALL