Important information: The contract is settled by counting the number of seats held on Feb 1, 2025. If a seat has been vacated and is still empty on that date, it will not count towards this number.
Senate margin of victory?
Senate margin of victory?
R by 4 or more
Yes
R by 4 or more
Yes
R by 2
No
R by 2
No
R by 3
No
R by 3
No
7 more
Market Rules
R by 4 or more
If the margin of victory in the Senate (difference between the Republicans and second largest majority) is 4 or more for the Republicans after the 2024 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from United States Congress.
This market will expire the February 1 following the election, or the next date that data is available. Independents caucusing with a party will count for that party (e.g. Bernie Sanders will count if he caucuses with the Democrats on that date).
Timeline and payout
Market openOct 7, 2024 · 8:15am EDT
Market closedFeb 1, 2025 · 10:00am EST
Paid outFeb 1, 2025 · 10:00am EST
SeriesSENATEMOV
EventSENATEMOV-24
MarketSENATEMOV-24-R-T4
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Holders of federal and statewide public office
- Paid campaign staffers on House and Senate campaigns.
- Anyone working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
- Third-party vendors and contractors (and employees thereof) of Congressional campaigns.
- Paid employees of Democratic and Republican Party organizations, such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee or the Republican National Committee.
- Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and “Super PACs” (independent expenditure only political committees).
- Paid employees of major polling organizations.
- Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations.
- All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
- All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
- All staff of the Office of the President of the United States.
- All staff of the Office of the Vice President of the United States.
- All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.