2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Begins in 147 days · Nov 3, 7:00am EST
Chance
Democrats, 8 to 10%
23%
▼ 2
Democrats, 8 to 10%
23%
▼ 2
Democrats, 6 to 8%
18%
▲ 1
Democrats, 6 to 8%
18%
▲ 1
Democrats, 10 to 12%
17%
▼ 1
Democrats, 10 to 12%
17%
▼ 1
7 more
Market Rules
Democrats, 8 to 10%
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from the Clerk of the House.
The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Timeline and payout
Market openFeb 4, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closesNov 3, 2027 · 9:59am EDT
Projected payoutNov 3, 2027 · 10:29am EDT
SeriesKXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN
EventKXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03
MarketKXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B9
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event