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Biotech Odds & Predictions 2026

Biotech Odds & Predictions

Finance

FDA decision: Anitocabtagene Autoleucel (anito-cel) by Gilead Sciences (this year)

Yes

1.16x

No

4.73x

$1,747 vol1 market

FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (this year)

Yes

1.33x

No

2.81x

$487 vol1 market

FDA decision: Ivonescimab by Summit Therapeutics (this year)

Yes

1.44x

No

2.46x

$5,844 vol1 market

FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (this year)

Yes

1.19x

No

3.80x

$1,825 vol1 market

FDA decision: BBP-418 by Ml Bio Solutions Inc. (this year)

Yes

1.07x

No

7.25x

$831 vol1 market

FDA decision: Venglustat by Sanofi (this year)

Yes

1.18x

No

4.13x

$521 vol1 market

FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (this year)

Yes

1.20x

No

3.66x

$468 vol1 market

FDA decision: Cytisinicline by Achieve Life Sciences (June 2026)

Denied (CRL Issued)

Yes

Conditional / Accelerated Approval

No

$23,821 vol5 markets

FDA decision: Roflumilast (ARQ-151) by Arcutis Biotherapeutics (June 2026)

Full Approval

Yes

Conditional / Accelerated Approval

No

$14,962 vol5 markets

FDA decision: Gedatolisib by Celcuity Inc. (July 2026)

Full Approval

Yes

Conditional / Accelerated Approval

No

$12,553 vol5 markets

FDA decision: Brepocitinib by Priovant Therapeutics (this year)

Yes

No

$7,611 vol1 market

FDA decision: Iberdomide by BMS/Celgene (this year)

Yes

No

$7,256 vol1 market

FDA decision: DTX401 (pariglasgene brecaparvovec) by Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (this year)

Yes

No

$3,767 vol1 market

FDA decision: Atacicept by Vera Therapeutics (in July 2026)

Yes

No

$2,966 vol1 market

FDA decision: Rusfertide by Protagonist Therapeutics (this year)

Yes

No

$2,093 vol1 market

FDA decision: bictegravir 75 mg/lenacapavir 50 mg (BIC/LEN) by Gilead Sciences (this year)

Yes

No

$703 vol1 market

Tech & Science

New cancer drug passes phase 1 trial?

Yes

No

$129,834 vol1 market

Politics

Will Novo Nordisk sue Hims?

Yes

No

$23,543 vol1 market