AI capability growth before July?
AI capability growth before July?
Begins in 14 days · Jul 1, 12:00am EDT
Chance
At least 1525 score
6%
▼ 1
At least 1525 score
6%
▼ 1
At least 1550 score
<1%
At least 1550 score
<1%
At least 1575 score
<1%
At least 1575 score
<1%
6 more
Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Market Rules
At least 1525 score
If an AI model has a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control).
Timeline and payout
Market openJan 6, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout5 minutes after closing
SeriesKXAISPIKE
EventKXAISPIKE-26B
MarketKXAISPIKE-26B-1525
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.