When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?
When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?
Chance
Before Sep 2026
50%
▲ 6
Before Sep 2026
50%
▲ 6
Before Oct 2026
53%
▼ 1
Before Oct 2026
53%
▼ 1
Before Nov 2026
64%
Before Nov 2026
64%
5 more
Market Rules
Before Jul 2026
If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from May 22, 2026 at 2pm EDT to Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from Bloomberg, White House, New York Times, Axios, Reuters, Politico, and Associated Press.
Any action related to Tulsi Gabbard will not qualify.
The President announcing that a member of the Cabinet will leave the Cabinet also qualifies.
For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Timeline and payout
Market openMay 22, 2026 · 2:00pm EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXCABLEAVE
EventKXCABLEAVE-26MAY22
MarketKXCABLEAVE-26MAY22-26JUL
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.