California Governor primary: who will outperform the polls?
California Governor primary: who will outperform the polls?
99%
99%
<1%
<1%
1%
1%
Market Rules
The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.
The California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Xavier Becerra
$0
Primary Elections
United States 2026
Primary Elections
United States 20262026 Primary Elections