Who will be Trump's FBI Director? Odds & Predictions 2026
Important information: Nominees must be confirmed by the United States Senate (recess appointments do not count).
Who will be Trump's FBI Director?
Who will be Trump's FBI Director?
Kash Patel
Yes
Kash Patel
Yes
Ken Paxton
No
Ken Paxton
No
Mike Rogers
No
Mike Rogers
No
2 more
Market Rules
Kash Patel
The outcome is Kash Patel
Resolves Yes ifKash Patel is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation between November 15, 2024 and December 31, 2026.Outcome verified from Library of Congress.
Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
Market openNov 15, 2024 · 10:00am EST
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out1 hour after closing
If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. Otherwise, it closes by Feb 20, 2025 at 2:25pm EST.
SeriesKXFBI
EventKXFBI-26DEC31
MarketKXFBI-26DEC31-KP
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About
The FBI Director oversees the Federal Bureau of Investigation and reports directly to the Attorney General. Appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, the Director serves a single term of up to 10 years, a limit established to prevent extended tenures like J. Edgar Hoover’s. President-elect Trump has nominated Kash Patel for this role, but he has yet to be confirmed by the Senate. (Source: FBI.gov)