How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States this year?

How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States this year?

Chance

Above 0

48%

Above 0

48%

Above 1

37%

Above 1

37%

Above 2

32%

Above 2

32%

5 more

Market Rules

Above 0

If the total number of human H5N1 cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 0, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from national health agencies, CDC, national health statistics reporting bodies, and World Health Organization.

Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized.

Note: this event is directional.

Timeline and payout

Market openMay 14, 2026 · 10:00am EDT

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 1, 2027 at 9:59am EST.

SeriesKXH5N1COUNT

EventKXH5N1COUNT-27JAN01

MarketKXH5N1COUNT-27JAN01-A0

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.