Los Angeles Mayor Primary: who will outperform the polls?
Los Angeles Mayor Primary: who will outperform the polls?
Begins in 139 days · Nov 3, 8:00am EST
Chance
Karen Bass
99%
Karen Bass
99%
Nithya Raman
99%
Nithya Raman
99%
Rae Huang
<1%
Rae Huang
<1%
2 more
Market Rules
Karen Bass
Resolves Yes if Karen Bass's realized result in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026.Outcome verified from California Secretary of State.
The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.
The Los Angeles Mayor primary polling average are: Karen Bass 27.7%, Spencer Pratt 22.1%, Nithya Raman 21.9%, Adam Miller 6.5%, Rae Huang 6.5%.
Timeline and payout
Market openJun 1, 2026 · 8:00pm EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXLAMAYOROUTPERFORM
EventKXLAMAYOROUTPERFORM-26JUN02
MarketKXLAMAYOROUTPERFORM-26JUN02-KBAS
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
