Will GPT plateau?
Will GPT plateau?
Before Jan 1, 2026
No
Before Jan 1, 2026
No
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Market Rules
Before Jan 1, 2026
Resolves Yes if OpenAI does not release a model that is at least 100 Elo points better than its top-ranked model as of market creation.Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).
The top-ranked OpenAI model as of market creation is ChatGPT-4o-latest (2024-09-03) with a score of 1340. An OpenAI model achieving a score of 1440 will resolve the market to No.
Timeline and payout
Market openOct 25, 2024 · 10:00am EDT
Market closedAug 13, 2025 · 2:29pm EDT
Paid outJan 1, 2026 · 10:05am EST
SeriesKXOAIPLATEAU
EventKXOAIPLATEAU-26
MarketKXOAIPLATEAU-26-JAN01
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Before Jan 1, 2026
Odds
0% chanceMax payout