Will anyone in Congress change parties this year?
Will anyone in Congress change parties this year?
Before 2027
Yes
Before 2027
Yes
Before 2026
No
Before 2026
No
Market Rules
Before 2027
Resolves Yes if a sitting member of Congress announces that they have changed or will change their political party affiliation before 2027.Outcome verified from The New York Times and Politico.
The Payout Criterion includes a member switching from partisan affiliation to independent, or independent to a given political party. This Payout Criterion also includes a member of Congress announcing that they will run for the next Congressional office, or in another future political campaign, in a different party's primary. For purposes of this Contract, partisan affiliation encompasses national party affiliations, and does not encompass regional political party affiliation. For example, a member announcing that they intend to join the Democratic Party instead of the Democratic-Farmers-Labor Party will not satisfy the Payout Criterion.
Timeline and payout
Market openDec 26, 2025 · 2:00pm EST
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXPARTYLEAVE
EventKXPARTYLEAVE-YEAR
MarketKXPARTYLEAVE-YEAR-27
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event