Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?
Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?
Chance
Before 2027
12%
Before 2027
12%
Before Feb 15, 2026
No
Before Feb 15, 2026
No
Market Rules
Before 2027
If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.
The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership. An announcement of future resignation counts for resolution even before it takes effect. This includes voluntary resignation, losing a leadership election, being ousted by the party, or any other mechanism that ends their party leadership. Death triggers special settlement at last traded prices. Temporarily stepping aside or taking leave while remaining leader does not qualify. The market is about party leadership positions, not government positions - a leader can resign from government while remaining party leader or vice versa.
Timeline and payout
Market openJan 3, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXPOILIEVREOUT
EventKXPOILIEVREOUT-26FEB15
MarketKXPOILIEVREOUT-26FEB15-27
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