What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

"No tax on tips" 69%

Higher work requirement for SNAP recipients 65%

Changes to Medicaid’s matching rates 42%

ALL

Before 2026

Chance

$89,218vol

"No tax on tips"

Defining tips as non-income, making them tax deductible, or providing a tax exemption

69%

"No tax on tips"

Defining tips as non-income, making them tax deductible, or providing a tax exemption

69%

Higher work requirement for SNAP recipients

65%

▲ 3

Higher work requirement for SNAP recipients

65%

▲ 3

Changes to Medicaid’s matching rates

42%

Changes to Medicaid’s matching rates

42%

5 more markets

Rules summary for

Changes to Medicaid’s matching rates

If the next budget reconciliation bill to become law includes Changing Medicaid's matching rate for any service before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress.

Timeline and payout

People are also trading

When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?

80% chance

· Before September 2025

What will Powell say during his May FOMC press conference?

41% chance

· Projection

Will 'no tax on tips' become law this year?

76% chance