When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? Odds & Predictions 2026
When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?
When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?
Chance
Market Rules
Before Jun 3, 2026
If a reconciliation bill passes the House before June 03, 2026, then the market resolves toYes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress.
Such bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…"
Timeline and payout
Market openMay 21, 2026 · 4:00pm EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout25 hours after closing
This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Jun 3, 2026 at 10:00am EDT.
SeriesKXRECNCH
EventKXRECNCH-26
MarketKXRECNCH-26-JUN03
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About
Reconciliation bills are a key tool for advancing budget-related legislation in Congress, addressing issues such as spending, revenue, and the federal debt limit. These bills are designed to expedite the legislative process, requiring only a majority vote in the House. They typically begin with the phrase: "To provide for reconciliation pursuant to..." and are closely tied to budget resolutions passed earlier in the legislative session. This market focuses on whether the House of Representatives will pass a reconciliation bill before May 1, 2025.