Who will be Trump's Secretary of Commerce? Odds & Predictions 2026
Important information: Nominees must be confirmed by the United States Senate (recess appointments do not count).
Who will be Trump's Secretary of Commerce?
Who will be Trump's Secretary of Commerce?
Howard Lutnick
Yes
Howard Lutnick
Yes
Bill Hagerty
No
Bill Hagerty
No
Linda McMahon
No
Linda McMahon
No
Robert Lighthizer
No
Robert Lighthizer
No
Market Rules
Howard Lutnick
The outcome is Howard Lutnick
Resolves Yes ifHoward Lutnick is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Commerce between November 6, 2024 and December 31, 2026.Outcome verified from Library of Congress.
Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
Market openNov 18, 2024 · 12:05pm EST
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out1 hour after closing
If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. Otherwise, it closes by Feb 18, 2025 at 8:23pm EST.
SeriesKXSECCOM
EventKXSECCOM-26DEC31
MarketKXSECCOM-26DEC31-HL
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