Who will be Trump's Secretary of Commerce? Odds & Predictions 2026
Important information: Nominees must be confirmed by the United States Senate (recess appointments do not count).
Who will be Trump's Secretary of Commerce?
Who will be Trump's Secretary of Commerce?
Market Rules
Howard Lutnick
The outcome is Howard Lutnick
If Howard Lutnick is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Commerce between November 6, 2024 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves toYes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress.
Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
Market openNov 18, 2024 ยท 12:05pm EST
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out1 hour after closing
If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. Otherwise, it closes by Feb 18, 2025 at 8:23pm EST.
SeriesKXSECCOM
EventKXSECCOM-26DEC31
MarketKXSECCOM-26DEC31-HL
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About
The Secretary of Commerce leads the Department of Commerce, providing policy guidance and advising the President on economic growth, trade, and industry. The role involves overseeing departmental functions, supervising operating units, and managing programs that support U.S. businesses and economic development. President-elect Trump has nominated Howard Lutnick for this position, but he has yet to be confirmed by the Senate. (Source: Commerce.gov)