Who will be Trump's Secretary of Defense? Odds & Predictions 2026
Important information: Nominees must be confirmed by the United States Senate (recess appointments do not count).
Who will be Trump's Secretary of Defense?
Who will be Trump's Secretary of Defense?
Pete Hegseth
Yes
Pete Hegseth
Yes
Ron DeSantis
No
Ron DeSantis
No
Tulsi Gabbard
No
Tulsi Gabbard
No
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Market Rules
Pete Hegseth
The outcome is Pete Hegseth
Resolves Yes ifPete Hegseth is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Defense between Issuance and December 31, 2026.Outcome verified from Library of Congress.
Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
Market openNov 12, 2024 · 7:45pm EST
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out1 hour after closing
If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 25, 2025 at 12:39am EST.
SeriesKXSECDEF
EventKXSECDEF-26DEC31
MarketKXSECDEF-26DEC31-PH
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