Who will be Trump's Secretary of State? Odds & Predictions 2026
Important information: Nominees must be confirmed by the United States Senate (recess appointments do not count).
Who will be Trump's Secretary of State?
Who will be Trump's Secretary of State?
Marco Rubio
Yes
Marco Rubio
Yes
Bill Hagerty
No
Bill Hagerty
No
Ric Grenell
No
Ric Grenell
No
2 more
Market Rules
Marco Rubio
The outcome is Marco Rubio
Resolves Yes ifMarco Rubio is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of State between November 6, 2024 and December 31, 2026.Outcome verified from Library of Congress.
Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
Market openNov 6, 2024 · 4:00pm EST
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out1 hour after closing
If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 21, 2025 at 10:00am EST.
SeriesKXSECSTATE
EventKXSECSTATE-26DEC31
MarketKXSECSTATE-26DEC31-MR
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