Who will be Trump’s Treasury Secretary? Odds & Predictions 2026
Important information: Nominees must be confirmed by the United States Senate (recess appointments do not count).
Who will be Trump’s Treasury Secretary?
Who will be Trump’s Treasury Secretary?
Scott Bessent
Yes
Scott Bessent
Yes
Howard Lutnick
No
Howard Lutnick
No
Kevin Warsh
No
Kevin Warsh
No
8 more
Market Rules
Scott Bessent
The outcome is Scott Bessent
If Scott Bessent is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of the Treasury between November 6, 2024 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves toYes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress.
Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
Market openNov 6, 2024 · 4:00pm EST
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out1 hour after closing
If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 27, 2025 at 10:32pm EST.
SeriesKXSECTREASURY
EventKXSECTREASURY-26DEC31
MarketKXSECTREASURY-26DEC31-SB
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About
The Secretary of the Treasury oversees U.S. financial, economic, and tax policy, manages public debt, and leads Treasury law enforcement and financial operations. The role also includes advising the President and representing the U.S. in global financial institutions. President-elect Trump has nominated Scott Bessent for this role, but he has yet to be confirmed by the Senate. (Source: Treasury.gov)