Who will be confirmed by the Senate before the August recess?
Who will be confirmed by the Senate before the August recess?
Chance
Nicole Saphier
Surgeon General
49%
Nicole Saphier
Surgeon General
49%
Brett Matsumoto
Commissioner of Labor Statistics
21%
Brett Matsumoto
Commissioner of Labor Statistics
21%
David MacNeil
FTC Commissioner
21%
David MacNeil
FTC Commissioner
21%
5 more
Market Rules
Nicole Saphier
If Nicole Saphier is the first person confirmed as Surgeon General before Aug 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Senate.
If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.
Timeline and payout
Market openApr 30, 2026 · 2:00pm EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXSENATECONFIRM
EventKXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29
MarketKXSENATECONFIRM-26APR30-NSAP
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