Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Chance
Before July
1.1%
▲ 0.1
Before July
1.1%
▲ 0.1
Before August
2.4%
▲ 0.6
Before August
2.4%
▲ 0.6
Before 2027
9.8%
▼ 0.1
Before 2027
9.8%
▼ 0.1
6 more
Market Rules
Before July
If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, The Guardian, South China Morning Post, CBC, ABC, BBC, The Washington Post, The Verge, and ABC News Australia.
Clarification (12/18/25): For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue. A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement. The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party. For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
Timeline and payout
Market openDec 11, 2025 · 6:00pm EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXTARIFFCHECKS
EventKXTARIFFCHECKS-26
MarketKXTARIFFCHECKS-26-JUL
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.