What will the U.S. tariff rate on China be on January 1, 2026?
What will the U.S. tariff rate on China be on January 1, 2026?
Between 10% and 19.99%
No
Between 10% and 19.99%
No
Between 20% and 29.99%
Yes
Between 20% and 29.99%
Yes
Between 30% and 39.99%
No
Between 30% and 39.99%
No
4 more
Market Rules
Below 10%
If the general import tariff rate on imports from the People's Republic of China (PRC) into the United States on Jan 1, 2026 is below 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from the President of the United States, the United States Congress, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.
The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the highest rate in effect determines the resolution.
Timeline and payout
Market openSep 7, 2025 · 10:00am EDT
Market closedDec 31, 2025 · 11:59pm EST
Paid outJan 1, 2026 · 10:30am EST
SeriesKXTARIFFRATEPRC
EventKXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JAN01
MarketKXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JAN01-10
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.