GPT beaten by another LLM this year?
GPT beaten by another LLM this year?
$157,121 vol
Order book
Yes
Market Rules
The outcome is Gemini-1.5-Pro-Exp-0801
If OpenAI no longer is the top ranked LLM before Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from LMSYS.
Clarification 3/14/24 6:03 PM ET: The Contract's Underlying states that, "The Underlying for this Contract is the Arena Elo rankings of large language models on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard as checked at 10:00 AM ET daily after Issuance and before <date>." To be clear, this refers to the "rank" column of the leaderboard, not the Arena Elo score proper. As of this update, the #1 spot is tied between two variations of GPT-4 and Claude 3 Opus.
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Timeline and payout
Market openFeb 12, 2024 · 3:30pm EST
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out1 hour after closing
SeriesKXTOPLLM
EventTOPLLM-24DEC31-OAI
MarketTOPLLM-24DEC31-OAI
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
Recent developments suggest that local models are rapidly improving in terms of reasoning capability, with models like Llama 2 and Yi-34b showing promising results. Additionally, new models like Galileo Luna have been fine-tuned for specific tasks and are outperforming GPT-3.5 in certain areas. The rapid progress in LLMs raises the possibility that another model could surpass GPT-4 by the end of the year.