NBA Play-In Tournament Odds 2026-27
Kalshi's market-implied chance of each NBA team reaching the 2026-27 play-in tournament — the four-team bracket in each conference that decides the seventh and eighth playoff places. Indiana Pacers lead the Eastern Conference board at 57%, across all 30 teams.
Live marketUpdated today at 3:48 AM ET
Where these numbers come from: Each figure is the market price of that club’s contract — the mid-market quote where the book is tight, otherwise the last trade. Prices are not a forecast from Kalshi; they are what traders are paying. Records come from the league and are shown for context, not used to price anything.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
2026-27 Eastern Conference play-in odds
| Team | W-L | Odds | 7d | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND Pacers | 4-8 | 57% | +9pp | Yes 63¢ |
| ORL Magic | 4-7 | 55% | +10pp | Yes 61¢ |
| MIA Heat | 5-6 | 47% | +8pp | Yes 49¢ |
| TOR Raptors | 5-6 | 45% | 0pp | Yes 42¢ |
| CHA Hornets | 4-7 | 43% | −6pp | Yes 49¢ |
| CLE Cavaliers | 6-6 | 41% | −2pp | Yes 48¢ |
| ATL Hawks | 7-5 | 39% | 0pp | Yes 54¢ |
| WSH Wizards | 4-8 | 33% | −8pp | Yes 33¢ |
| NY Knicks | 6-5 | 26% | −13pp | Yes 26¢ |
| PHI 76ers | 9-3 | 18% | +7pp | Yes 20¢ |
| DET Pistons | 7-3 | 17% | −19pp | Yes 24¢ |
| CHI Bulls | 1-9 | 16% | −7pp | Yes 19¢ |
| BKN Nets | 3-8 | 7% | −6pp | Yes 8¢ |
| MIL Bucks | 1-11 | 7% | −6pp | Yes 11¢ |
| BOS Celtics | 10-2 | 1% | −30pp | Yes 16¢ |
| Team | W-L | Odds | 7d | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA HornetsClinched | 44-38 | 100% | +2pp | — |
| MIA HeatClinched | 43-39 | 100% | +5pp | — |
| ORL MagicClinched | 45-37 | 100% | +3pp | — |
| PHI 76ersClinched | 45-37 | 100% | +2pp | — |
| ATL HawksOut | 46-36 | 0% | −9pp | — |
| BOS CelticsOut | 56-26 | 0% | −2pp | — |
| BKN NetsOut | 20-62 | 0% | −3pp | — |
| CHI BullsOut | 31-51 | 0% | −2pp | — |
| CLE CavaliersOut | 52-30 | 0% | −6pp | — |
| DET PistonsOut | 60-22 | 0% | −3pp | — |
| IND PacersOut | 19-63 | 0% | −3pp | — |
| MIL BucksOut | 32-50 | 0% | −1pp | — |
| NY KnicksOut | 53-29 | 0% | −3pp | — |
| TOR RaptorsOut | 46-36 | 0% | −93pp | — |
| WSH WizardsOut | 17-65 | 0% | −4pp | — |
WESTERN CONFERENCE
2026-27 Western Conference play-in odds
| Team | W-L | Odds | 7d | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Mavericks | 7-4 | 56% | +7pp | Yes 59¢ |
| MEM Grizzlies | 7-4 | 54% | +1pp | Yes 59¢ |
| GS Warriors | 8-4 | 52% | +4pp | Yes 53¢ |
| POR Trail Blazers | 8-3 | 43% | −7pp | Yes 48¢ |
| PHX Suns | 4-6 | 38% | −6pp | Yes 43¢ |
| HOU Rockets | 9-3 | 37% | 0pp | Yes 21¢ |
| DEN Nuggets | 6-4 | 31% | 0pp | Yes 47¢ |
| MIN Timberwolves | 8-3 | 30% | 0pp | Yes 45¢ |
| NO Pelicans | 4-8 | 22% | −28pp | Yes 27¢ |
| LAL Lakers | 11-2 | 20% | −3pp | Yes 27¢ |
| LAC Clippers | 2-8 | 16% | −4pp | Yes 20¢ |
| OKC Thunder | 8-4 | 13% | +11pp | Yes 18¢ |
| UTA Jazz | 1-11 | 12% | +2pp | Yes 18¢ |
| SA Spurs | 10-2 | 10% | 0pp | Yes 16¢ |
| SAC Kings | 1-10 | 7% | −1pp | Yes 10¢ |
| Team | W-L | Odds | 7d | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS WarriorsClinched | 37-45 | 100% | +3pp | — |
| LAC ClippersClinched | 42-40 | 100% | +1pp | — |
| PHX SunsClinched | 45-37 | 100% | +3pp | — |
| POR Trail BlazersClinched | 42-40 | 100% | +2pp | — |
| DAL MavericksOut | 26-56 | 0% | −2pp | — |
| DEN NuggetsOut | 54-28 | 0% | −5pp | — |
| HOU RocketsOut | 52-30 | 0% | −9pp | — |
| LAL LakersOut | 53-29 | 0% | −2pp | — |
| MEM GrizzliesOut | 25-57 | 0% | −5pp | — |
| MIN TimberwolvesOut | 49-33 | 0% | −15pp | — |
| NO PelicansOut | 26-56 | 0% | −2pp | — |
| OKC ThunderOut | 64-18 | 0% | −1pp | — |
| SAC KingsOut | 22-60 | 0% | −3pp | — |
| SA SpursOut | 62-20 | 0% | −1pp | — |
| UTA JazzOut | 22-60 | 0% | −3pp | — |
METHOD
How these odds work
Every figure here is a live Kalshi market price. A contract on a club to reach the play-in tournament pays out at 100¢ if it does and nothing if it does not, so its price in cents reads directly as the market's implied chance in percent.
The play-in is contested by the clubs finishing 7th through 10th in each conference. Seeds 7 and 8 need one win to reach the playoffs; seeds 9 and 10 need two. It is NBA-native — no other major league has an equivalent.
Each board is ordered by that price, using the exact quote rather than the rounded figure printed in the column — two clubs a hundredth of a point apart would otherwise swap places between refreshes.
FAQ
Questions
Which teams are most likely to reach the 2026-27 NBA play-in?
Indiana Pacers lead the East at 57% and Dallas Mavericks lead the West at 56%. Those are market prices on Kalshi, not Kalshi forecasts.
How does the NBA play-in tournament work?
The clubs finishing 7th through 10th in each conference play off for the last two playoff places. 7 hosts 8, and the winner takes the 7 seed. 9 hosts 10, the loser is eliminated, and the winner plays the loser of 7-v-8 for the 8 seed.
How are these NBA play-in odds calculated?
They are not calculated — they are prices. Each club has a contract that pays 100¢ if it happens, so what traders pay for it reads directly as an implied percentage. Where the bid and ask are close the page shows the midpoint; otherwise it shows the last trade.
TEAMS
Every NBA team
- Atlanta Hawks
- Boston Celtics
- Brooklyn Nets
- Charlotte Hornets
- Chicago Bulls
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Dallas Mavericks
- Denver Nuggets
- Detroit Pistons
- Golden State Warriors
- Houston Rockets
- Indiana Pacers
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Miami Heat
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- New Orleans Pelicans
- New York Knicks
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Orlando Magic
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Phoenix Suns
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Sacramento Kings
- San Antonio Spurs
- Toronto Raptors
- Utah Jazz
- Washington Wizards