Cash
Portfolio
TrendingMidtermsElectionsPoliticsSportsCultureCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science
PredictLive131AccountSocial
MARKETSINVESTLIVE131
Product
Kalshi ProInvestMarketsIncentive programSmall business hedgingInstitutionsAPI & developers
Company
AboutKalshi ResearchBlogCareersPolicy CenterBrand Kit
Help
Help CenterFAQFee scheduleTrading hoursRegulatoryTrust Center
© 2026 Kalshi Inc. · All rights reserved
PrivacyData Terms of ServiceTrading ProhibitionsFAQ for Finance Professionals
Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
  1. Home
  2. ·
  3. Culture
  4. ·
  5. Release Dates

Release Dates 2026

Kalshi traders give GTA 6 a 98% chance of release before December 1, 2026. The latest releases its markets called: Phantom Blade Zero, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 and Grand Theft Auto VI: New trailer. Below are the odds for every release Kalshi lists, the earliest date each market gives even odds, and the releases already out.
37 releasesUpdated today at 3:35 PM ET
Where these odds come from: Each percentage is the price of a Kalshi contract on the release happening before a date: the midpoint of the order book where it is tight, otherwise the last trade. Prices are not a Kalshi forecast.
Most-watched releaseVideo games

GTA 6

98%chance of release before December 1, 2026

Trade the GTA 6 market
Chance of release before each date
  1. 98%Dec 1
  2. 98%Jan 1
  3. 99%Jul 1
  4. 99%Jan 1
50% chance byBefore Dec 1, 2026Earliest date at 50% or more
Next dateDec 1, 202698% chance before it
Contracts traded6.8MAcross every date
Every release

Release-date odds, before January 1, 2027

Each release's chance of coming out before the same date, the earliest date its market gives even odds, and how much has traded. Tap a release for its market.
Kalshi's odds of each release coming out before January 1, 2027
ReleaseBefore Jan 1, 202750% chance byTraded
Video games
GTA 6Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date		98%Before Dec 1, 20266.8M
GTA VI OnlineGTA VI Online: Release date		23%Before Jul 1, 2027305.4K
GTA 6GTA 6 released on time?		—Before Nov 19, 2026168.9K
Elder Scrolls VIWhen will Elder Scrolls VI be released?		5%Under 50% to Jan 1, 202846.6K
AI models
MythosWhen will Anthropic release Mythos?		3%Under 50% to Jan 1, 20272.2M
Astra 6.1When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+?		—Before Nov 13, 2026621.6K
Next Gemini Pro modelNext Gemini Pro model release		—Under 50% to Dec 1, 2026154.9K
Grok 5When will xAI release Grok 5?		10%Under 50% to Jan 1, 2027106.3K
Opus 6When will Anthropic release Opus 6?		—Under 50% to Dec 1, 202666.8K
Fable 5.2When will Anthropic release Fable 5.2?		99%Before Nov 16, 202615.2K
Claude 6+ (any family)When will Anthropic release Claude 6?		—Before Mar 31, 202711.4K
GPT-7When will OpenAI release GPT-7?		—Before Sep 1, 20278.4K
Opus 5.6When will Anthropic release Opus 5.6?		88%Before Dec 1, 2026672
Tech
iPhone 18When will Apple release the iPhone 18?		3%Before Apr 1, 20275.3M
Tesla OptimusTesla Optimus released this year?		4%Under 50% to Jan 1, 2027485.8K
Music
DrakeWhen will Drake release a new album?		6%Under 50% to Jan 1, 2027132.2K
Kendrick LamarWhen will Kendrick Lamar release a new album?		7%Under 50% to Jan 1, 202726.8K
Travis ScottWhen will Travis Scott release a new album?		10%Under 50% to Jan 1, 202720.3K
Don ToliverWhen will Don Toliver release a new album?		—Before Feb 1, 202713.5K
Don ToliverWhen will Don Toliver release 'NITROUS'?		97%Before Jan 1, 202712.3K
Tate McRaeWhen will Tate McRae release a new album?		—Before Feb 1, 20275.3K
Dua LipaWhen will Dua Lipa release a new album?		—Under 50% to Dec 1, 20264.3K
NewJeansWill NewJeans release a new song this year?		72%Before Jan 1, 20273.4K
MrBeastWill MrBeast release an album this year?		7%Under 50% to Jan 1, 20272.5K
FutureWhen will Future a release new album?		—Before Jun 1, 2027868
The Jonas BrothersWhen will The Jonas Brothers release new album?		19%Before Jan 1, 202890
TV and film
Stranger Things: New episodeStranger Things: New episode this year?		3%Under 50% to Jan 1, 20272.7M
KPop Demon Hunters 2KPop Demon Hunters 2: Released this year?		5%Under 50% to Jan 1, 202780.1K
Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse trailerWhen will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released?		—Before Apr 1, 202731.5K
Dune: Part ThreeWhen will Dune: Part Three be released?		98%Before Jan 1, 202723.7K
Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey filmWill Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year?		7%Under 50% to Jan 1, 202717.7K
James BondJames Bond · Release Date		—Before Jan 1, 20297.9K
A New Season of Prison BreakPrison Break: New season release date		14%Before Jan 1, 20283.3K
A Quiet Place Part IIIWill 'A Quiet Place Part III' be released before 2028?		—Before Jan 1, 20281.5K
Austin Powers 4Austin Powers 4: Release Date		—Before Jan 1, 2029427
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms: Season 2A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms Season 2: Release Date		9%Before Jul 1, 2027414
Scream 8Scream 8 released before 2028?		—Before Jan 1, 2028353
Odds over time

How GTA 6's release odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%
98%
Aug 12Sep 25Now
Since August 12, Kalshi's odds of GTA 6 releasing before December 1, 2026 moved from 87% to 98%.
More release markets

What comes out this year, and how it lands

The other questions traders are pricing about releases: which games and albums come out this year, and how GTA 6 does at launch.

  • Video games released this year

    Most likely    Grand Theft Auto VI
    99%    Iron Man
    6%    Light No Fire
    5%    $306,337 vol

  • Who will release a new album this year?

    Most likely    Offset
    97%    2 Chainz
    97%    Anuel AA
    95%    $598,527 vol

  • Will Rockstar Games release the PC version of GTA 6 before 2028?

    Yes or no    Yes
    77%    No
    23%    $5,509 vol

  • Will GTA 6 break the record for the highest-grossing videogame in 24 hours?

    Yes or no    Yes
    98%    No
    2%    $39,448 vol

  • Grand Theft Auto VI: Songs on radio at launch

    Most likely    Pepas
    73%    Blinding Lights
    38%    Bad and Boujee
    29%    $98,005 vol

  • New Xbox this year?

    Yes or no    Yes
    11%    No
    89%    $55,817 vol
Already out

Releases Kalshi's markets have called

Every release whose Kalshi market settled Yes in the last 12 months, newest first.
  1. Phantom Blade ZeroVideo gamesReleased Nov 6, 2026
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4Video gamesReleased Oct 28, 2026
  3. Grand Theft Auto VI: New trailerVideo games · Grand Theft Auto VI: New trailer release dateReleased Oct 15, 2026
  4. Gemini 4AI models · When will Google release Gemini 4?Released Oct 13, 2026
  5. PitbullMusic · When will Pitbull release a new album?Released Oct 9, 2026
  6. Gears of War E-DayVideo gamesReleased Oct 8, 2026
  7. DrakeMusic · When will Drake release a remix of Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas”?Released Oct 2, 2026
  8. Taylor SwiftMusic · When will Taylor Swift release a new album?Released Sep 25, 2026
  9. Control ResonantVideo gamesReleased Sep 25, 2026
  10. WolverineVideo gamesReleased Sep 25, 2026
  11. Miley CyrusMusic · When will Miley Cyrus release a new album?Released Sep 22, 2026
  12. Grok 4.7AI models · When will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7?Released Sep 21, 2026
  13. iPhone 18 ProTech · When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?Released Sep 18, 2026
  14. GPT-6AI models · When will OpenAI release GPT-6?Released Sep 7, 2026
  15. AstraAI models · When will OpenAI release Astra?Released Sep 7, 2026
  16. Next Gemini Flash modelAI models · Next Gemini Flash model releaseReleased Sep 2, 2026
  17. Next Mythos-Class modelAI models · When will Anthropic release the next Mythos-Class model?Released Sep 1, 2026
  18. Grok 4.6AI models · When will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.6?Released Aug 12, 2026
  19. Halo: Campaign EvolvedVideo gamesReleased Aug 5, 2026
  20. Selena GomezMusic · When will Selena Gomez release a new song?Released Jul 31, 2026
  21. KATSEYEMusic · When will KATSEYE release a new song?Released Jul 26, 2026
  22. Next Claude Opus modelAI models · When will Anthropic release the next Claude Opus model?Released Jul 24, 2026
  23. Avengers: Doomsday trailerTV and film · When will the official trailer for Avengers: Doomsday be released?Released Jul 20, 2026
  24. FutureMusic · When will Future release The Real Me?Released Jul 15, 2026
  25. GPT-5.6AI models · When will OpenAI release GPT-5.6?Released Jul 9, 2026
  26. A model called Claude 5 or greaterAI models · When will Anthropic release Claude 5?Released Jun 9, 2026
  27. New Star Wars movieTV and film · New Star Wars movie released in theaters before 2027?Released May 22, 2026
  28. IcemanMusic · When will Drake release Iceman?Released May 15, 2026
  29. DrakeMusic · When will Drake release new song?Released May 15, 2026
  30. Grok 4.2AI models · When will xAI release Grok 4.2?Released Feb 21, 2026
  31. The Avengers: Doomsday trailerTV and film · When will The Avengers: Doomsday trailer be released?Released Dec 21, 2025
  32. Metroid Prime 4: BeyondVideo gamesReleased Dec 9, 2025
  33. Call of Duty: Black Ops 7Video gamesReleased Nov 18, 2025
Method

How Kalshi's release-date odds work

Every release Kalshi lists has its own market, with one contract per date: "Before Dec 1, 2026", "Before 2027" and so on. Each settles Yes if the release happens before its date, as its rules define it.A Yes contract pays $1, so its price in cents reads as the implied chance in percent. The table reads every release at the same date, the next January 1, and shows the earliest date its market gives even odds.Thinly traded dates can price out of order, a later date below an earlier one, because each contract trades on its own. Once something comes out, its contracts settle Yes and it moves to the releases already out.
FAQ

Release date questions

When will GTA 6 come out?
The earliest date Kalshi's market gives GTA 6 even odds or better of release is December 1, 2026, at 98%. Traders give it a 98% chance of release before January 1, 2027.
When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
The earliest date Kalshi's market gives iPhone 18 even odds or better of release is April 1, 2027, at 84%. Traders give it a 3% chance of release before January 1, 2027.
When will Stranger Things: New episode come out?
None of the dates Kalshi's market lists reaches even odds: the latest, January 1, 2027, is at 3%.
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
None of the dates Kalshi's market lists reaches even odds: the latest, January 1, 2027, is at 3%.
When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+?
The earliest date Kalshi's market gives Astra 6.1 even odds or better of release is November 13, 2026, at 57%.
What has been released in 2026, according to Kalshi's markets?
Kalshi's release markets have settled 30 releases in 2026, among them Grand Theft Auto VI: New trailer (October 15), Iceman (May 15), GPT-5.6 (July 9), GPT-6 (September 7), Gemini 4 (October 13) and iPhone 18 Pro (September 18).
What counts as a release on Kalshi?
Each market settles on the release its rules describe, such as a game's launch, a model's public availability or an album's release on streaming services. The rules are on each market's page.
How are Kalshi's release-date odds calculated?
Each release has a Kalshi market with one Yes/No contract per date: Yes pays $1 if the release happens before that date. The percentage is the contract's price, the midpoint of the order book where it is tight, otherwise the last trade, so a price of 30¢ reads as a 30% implied chance. Prices are not a Kalshi forecast.
Release markets

Trade the release dates

The markets these odds are read from, and the rest of Kalshi's culture coverage.
GTA 6 release dateiPhone 18 release dateStranger Things: New episode release dateMythos release dateAstra 6.1 release dateAll culture markets