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Silicon Valley Odds & Predictions 2026
Finance
Finance
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
OpenAI
3.29
x
27
%
Anthropic
1.26
x
77
%
$228,573 vol
2 markets
CEOs
Sam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
Yes
6.29
x
10
%
No
1.10
x
90
%
$71,690 vol
1 market
Finance
One-time layoff greater than Block (4,000 employees) in tech?
Before July
Yes
Before 2027
Yes
$65,673 vol
2 markets
CEOs
Will Sam Altman be granted an equity stake in OpenAI in 2025?
Yes
No
$54,268 vol
1 market
CEOs
Will the CEO of Y Combinator leave in 2025?
Yes
No
$15,373 vol
1 market
CEOs
Sundar Pichai leaves Google in 2025?
Yes
No
$14,389 vol
1 market
Mentions
Mentions
What will Alex Karp say during the NYT DealBook Summit?
Israel
Yes
China
Yes
$89,699 vol
12 markets
Politicians
What will Travis Kalanick say during the TBPN Podcast?
Waymo
Yes
Robot / Robotic / Robotics
Yes
$82,288 vol
12 markets
Politicians
What will Alex Karp say during the TBPN Podcast?
Trump
Yes
Iran
Yes
$71,382 vol
13 markets
Economics
Economics
More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?
Yes
No
$477,194 vol
1 market
Growth
Tech layoffs up in December 2025?
Yes
No
$55,918 vol
1 market
Politics
Politics
Will Elon Musk sue Apple?
Yes
No
$63,572 vol
1 market
International
Will Nikita Bier leave X this year?
Yes
No
$15,918 vol
1 market
Tech & Science
AI
Will California pass a law mandating AI models have a 'kill switch'?
Yes
No
$15,900 vol
1 market
General
General
Will Shaun Maguire leave Sequoia in 2025?
Yes
No
$14,318 vol
1 market
Silicon Valley Odds & Predictions
Trending
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