Golf Picks
The market’s golf picks: who leads each tournament this week and the latest winners. No PGA Tour event is trading right now: Kalshi lists each week’s field early in the week, and this page fills in when it does.
Live market pricesUpdated today at 2:09 PM ET
Where these numbers come from: Kalshi prices: KXPGATOUR for PGA Tour winners and events listed further ahead (the next Masters, for one), KXPGATOP5/10/20, KXPGAMAKECUT and KXPGAR1LEAD for finishing positions, each tour’s own winner series (KXDPWORLDTOUR, KXLPGATOUR, KXLIVTOUR, KXCHAMPTOUR, KXKFTOUR), and KXGOLFMAJOR for majors futures. The track record prices each event at the last trade before play: by the earliest of midnight Eastern going into the Thursday of the tournament week, midnight at the course going into that Thursday for events outside the Americas (the Baycurrent Classic in Japan tees off on Wednesday evening, Eastern), and the tournament start Kalshi records. Never a trade from after the first tee shot.
TO WINThe golfers priced highest in each winner market shown for this week: two per market, or one where only one has a readable price. When the two are level, the market has no favourite there.
Who leads each tournament this week
| Event | Top price | Price | Next | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DP World Tour ChampionshipDP World Tour | Rory McIlroy | 32% | Jon Rahm | 9% |
| The ANNIKA driven by Gainbridge at PelicanLPGA Tour | Nelly Korda | 34% | Hye-Jin Choi | 25% |
| Charles Schwab Cup ChampionshipPGA Tour Champions | Zach Johnson | 21% | Stewart Cink | 15% |
LATEST WINNERSThe most recent graded tournament on each tour shown, from Kalshi’s settled winner markets.
Who won last time out
| Tour | Tournament | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| DP World Tour | Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship | Jon Rahm |
| LPGA Tour | TOTO Japan Classic | Shuri Sakuma |
| PGA Tour | World Wide Technology Championship | Blades Brown |
| PGA Tour Champions | Simmons Bank Championship | Darren Fichardt |
| Korn Ferry Tour | Korn Ferry Tour Championship presented by Virginia's Richmond Region | Austin Hitt |
| LIV Golf | LIV Golf Indianapolis | Michael La Sasso |
TRACK RECORDAcross the 60 PGA Tour events with a favourite that Kalshi graded from the week of May 1, 2025 through Oct 11, 2026, the golfer priced highest to win before round 1 won 10 (17%). Those favourites were priced at 17% on average, so the market expected about that share of them to win. Left out: 7 events whose top two were priced level (no favourite). The 20 most recent events:
How the market’s PGA Tour picks have done
| Event | Favourite | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baycurrent ClassicWeek of Oct 8, 2026 | Xander Schauffele · 8% | Michael Brennan · 2% | Lost |
| Bank of Utah ChampionshipWeek of Oct 1, 2026 | Jackson Koivun · 7% | Austin Smotherman · 1% | Lost |
| Biltmore Championship AshevilleWeek of Sep 17, 2026 | Jackson Koivun · 7% | Jacob Bridgeman · 4% | Lost |
| TOUR ChampionshipWeek of Aug 27, 2026 | Scottie Scheffler · 22% | Scottie Scheffler · 22% | Won |
| BMW ChampionshipWeek of Aug 20, 2026 | Scottie Scheffler · 24% | Wyndham Clark · 3% | Lost |
| FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipWeek of Aug 13, 2026 | Scottie Scheffler · 16% | Scottie Scheffler · 16% | Won |
| Wyndham ChampionshipWeek of Aug 6, 2026 | Cameron Young · 10% | Michael Brennan · 1% | Lost |
| Rocket ClassicWeek of Jul 30, 2026 | Cameron Young · 8% | Michael Thorbjornsen · 2% | Lost |
| 3M OpenWeek of Jul 23, 2026 | Scottie Scheffler · 26% | Jackson Koivun · 3% | Lost |
| The Open ChampionshipWeek of Jul 16, 2026 | Scottie Scheffler · 12% | Ryan Fox · <1% | Lost |
| ISCO ChampionshipWeek of Jul 9, 2026 | Jackson Koivun · 7% | Steven Fisk · 2% | Lost |
| Genesis Scottish OpenWeek of Jul 9, 2026 | Scottie Scheffler · 14% | Tom Kim · 1% | Lost |
| Travelers ChampionshipWeek of Jun 25, 2026 | Scottie Scheffler · 18% | Viktor Hovland · 2% | Lost |
| U.S. OpenWeek of Jun 18, 2026 | Scottie Scheffler · 14% | Wyndham Clark · 2% | Lost |
| RBC Canadian OpenWeek of Jun 11, 2026 | Tommy Fleetwood · 7% | Bud Cauley · 2% | Lost |
| The Memorial TournamentWeek of Jun 4, 2026 | Scottie Scheffler · 22% | J.T. Poston · <1% | Lost |
| Charles Schwab ChallengeWeek of May 28, 2026 | Ludvig Aberg · 9% | Russell Henley · 5% | Lost |
| THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonWeek of May 21, 2026 | Scottie Scheffler · 33% | Wyndham Clark · 2% | Lost |
| PGA ChampionshipWeek of May 14, 2026 | Scottie Scheffler · 17% | Aaron Rai · <1% | Lost |
| ONEflight Myrtle Beach ClassicWeek of May 7, 2026 | Brooks Koepka · 7% | Brandt Snedeker · <1% | Lost |
TOP-10 PICKSIn the 40 PGA Tour events with a top-10 market from the week of Jan 15, 2026 through Oct 11, 2026, the golfers Kalshi priced likeliest to finish in the top 10 before round 1 did so 115 times in 363 (32%). Their prices added up to 120.8 top-10 finishes, the number the market expected. 8 picks withdrew before teeing off and are not counted. The picks are the 10 golfers priced highest to finish in the top 10, at the same moment before round 1; when tenth and eleventh print the same price, neither is a pick. Ties count as top-10 finishes, as the contracts settle them. The 20 most recent events:
How the market’s top-10 picks have done
| Event | Top 10 | Expected | Likeliest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baycurrent ClassicWeek of Oct 8, 2026 | 2 of 8 | 2.9 | Xander Schauffele · 49% · top 10 |
| Bank of Utah ChampionshipWeek of Oct 1, 2026 | 2 of 9 | 2.7 | Jackson Koivun · 40% · missed |
| Biltmore Championship AshevilleWeek of Sep 17, 2026 | 4 of 10 | 2.6 | Jackson Koivun · 37% · top 10 |
| TOUR ChampionshipWeek of Aug 27, 2026 | 3 of 9 | 4.7 | Scottie Scheffler · 78% · top 10 |
| BMW ChampionshipWeek of Aug 20, 2026 | 1 of 10 | 4.1 | Scottie Scheffler · 73% · missed |
| FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipWeek of Aug 13, 2026 | 6 of 10 | 3.5 | Scottie Scheffler · 63% · top 10 |
| Wyndham ChampionshipWeek of Aug 6, 2026 | 2 of 8 | 2.3 | Patrick Cantlay · 80% · withdrew |
| Rocket ClassicWeek of Jul 30, 2026 | 4 of 10 | 2.9 | Cameron Young · 41% · top 10 |
| 3M OpenWeek of Jul 23, 2026 | 3 of 9 | 2.6 | Scottie Scheffler · 69% · top 10 |
| Corales Puntacana ChampionshipWeek of Jul 16, 2026 | 1 of 9 | 2.5 | Taylor Pendrith · 33% · missed |
| The Open ChampionshipWeek of Jul 16, 2026 | 2 of 8 | 2.7 | Scottie Scheffler · 48% · top 10 |
| ISCO ChampionshipWeek of Jul 9, 2026 | 2 of 10 | 2.5 | Jackson Koivun · 32% · top 10 |
| Genesis Scottish OpenWeek of Jul 9, 2026 | 3 of 10 | 3.3 | Scottie Scheffler · 55% · missed |
| John Deere ClassicWeek of Jul 2, 2026 | 1 of 10 | 2.8 | Ben Griffin · 35% · missed |
| Travelers ChampionshipWeek of Jun 25, 2026 | 2 of 9 | 3.2 | Scottie Scheffler · 65% · top 10 |
| U.S. OpenWeek of Jun 18, 2026 | 1 of 10 | 3.3 | Scottie Scheffler · 56% · top 10 |
| RBC Canadian OpenWeek of Jun 11, 2026 | 1 of 10 | 2.8 | Tommy Fleetwood · 41% · missed |
| The Memorial TournamentWeek of Jun 4, 2026 | 1 of 9 | 3.5 | Jackson Suber · 80% · withdrew |
| Charles Schwab ChallengeWeek of May 28, 2026 | 4 of 10 | 2.7 | Ludvig Aberg · 44% · missed |
| THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonWeek of May 21, 2026 | 3 of 10 | 3.0 | Scottie Scheffler · 78% · top 10 |
LEFT OUTEach event Kalshi graded in the window that the record does not score, and why.
Events the record leaves out
| Event | Why |
|---|---|
| Corales Puntacana ChampionshipWeek of Jul 16, 2026 | Top two priced level |
| John Deere ClassicWeek of Jul 2, 2026 | Top two priced level |
| Zurich Classic of New OrleansWeek of Apr 23, 2026 | Top two priced level |
| Valero Texas OpenWeek of Apr 2, 2026 | Top two priced level |
| Butterfield Bermuda ChampionshipWeek of Nov 13, 2025 | Top two priced level |
| Bank of Utah ChampionshipWeek of Oct 23, 2025 | Top two priced level |
| Sanderson Farms ChampionshipWeek of Oct 2, 2025 | Top two priced level |
PRICED RIGHT?In the 40 PGA Tour events with a top-10 market from the week of Jan 15, 2026 through Oct 11, 2026, top-10 picks on Kalshi finished in the top 10 less often than their prices said, by 1 point: 115 top-10 finishes in 363 picks (32%), against prices that averaged 33%. The furthest off were those priced 60% and up: 61% finished in the top 10, against an average price of 75%, over 18 picks.
Did the top-10 picks finish there as often as their prices said?
Hit rate32%115 top-10 finishes in 363 picks
Their prices said33%The average price before play: about 120.8 top-10 finishes expected
Against the price−1 ptTop-10 picks finished in the top 10 less often than their prices said, by 1 point
PGA Tour top-10 picks: how often they finished there, against their price
← Below their pricesAbove their prices →- Under 30%Under 30%Top-10 picks priced under 30%: 26% finished in the top 10, against an average price of 25%, over 171 picks:+126%45 top-10 finishes in 171 picks (26%), priced at 25% on average
- 30–39%30–39%Top-10 picks priced 30–39%: 31% finished in the top 10, against an average price of 34%, over 127 picks:−331%39 top-10 finishes in 127 picks (31%), priced at 34% on average
- 40–49%40–49%Top-10 picks priced 40–49%: 44% finished in the top 10, against an average price of 43%, over 39 picks:+144%17 top-10 finishes in 39 picks (44%), priced at 43% on average
- 50–59%50–59%Top-10 picks priced 50–59%: 38% finished in the top 10, against an average price of 56%, over 8 picks:−1838%3 top-10 finishes in 8 picks (38%), priced at 56% on average
- 60% and up60% and upTop-10 picks priced 60% and up: 61% finished in the top 10, against an average price of 75%, over 18 picks:−1461%11 top-10 finishes in 18 picks (61%), priced at 75% on average
Beat their pricesTop-10 finishes over the number the prices expected
- FedEx St. Jude Championship+2.56 of 10 · 3.5 expected
- Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches+2.44 of 6 · 1.6 expected
- RBC Heritage+2.26 of 10 · 3.8 expected
- Texas Children's Houston Open+1.94 of 8 · 2.1 expected
- WM Phoenix Open+1.85 of 10 · 3.3 expected
Fell shortTop-10 finishes under the number the prices expected
- BMW Championship−3.11 of 10 · 4.1 expected
- Sony Open in Hawaii−2.62 of 9 · 4.6 expected
- The Memorial Tournament−2.51 of 9 · 3.5 expected
- U.S. Open−2.31 of 10 · 3.3 expected
- RBC Canadian Open−1.81 of 10 · 2.8 expected
METHOD
How to read this page
Every pick is a market price: a tournament’s leader is the golfer priced highest to win, a top-10 pick the highest top-10 price. When the top two are level, the market has no favourite. They are the market’s consensus, not tips.
A top-10 or make-the-cut contract is its own market. A golfer can be a short price to make the cut and a long one to win.
Priced right? sets the record against its own prices. A favourite priced at 70% should win about 7 times in 10, so each price band’s bar is the share that won minus the band’s average price, in percentage points: right of the centre line, those favourites won more often than their prices said; left of it, less often. One result moves a small band a long way, so read each bar with its count.
The track record scores the winner pick of each PGA Tour event Kalshi graded since May 2025 (the PGA Championship, U.S. Open and Open Championship of 2025 included; qualifiers left out). An event whose top two printed the same price has no favourite and is left out, as are voided ones. With 70 to 160 golfers in a field, even a clear favourite usually loses: the record is best read against the favourites’ own average price.
FAQ
Questions
How often does the favourite win a PGA Tour event on Kalshi?
Across the 60 PGA Tour events with a favourite that Kalshi graded from the week of May 1, 2025 through Oct 11, 2026, the golfer priced highest to win before round 1 won 10 (17%). Those favourites were priced at 17% on average, so the market expected about that share of them to win.
How often do Kalshi’s top-10 picks finish in the top 10 at PGA Tour events?
In the 40 PGA Tour events with a top-10 market from the week of Jan 15, 2026 through Oct 11, 2026, the golfers Kalshi priced likeliest to finish in the top 10 before round 1 did so 115 times in 363 (32%). Their prices added up to 120.8 top-10 finishes, the number the market expected. 8 picks withdrew before teeing off and are not counted.
Are Kalshi’s PGA Tour top-10 prices right?
In the 40 PGA Tour events with a top-10 market from the week of Jan 15, 2026 through Oct 11, 2026, top-10 picks on Kalshi finished in the top 10 less often than their prices said, by 1 point: 115 top-10 finishes in 363 picks (32%), against prices that averaged 33%. The furthest off were those priced 60% and up: 61% finished in the top 10, against an average price of 75%, over 18 picks.
How do I read Kalshi’s golf odds?
Each price is what a contract paying $1 if that outcome happens costs right now, so 12¢ reads as a 12% chance. A golfer’s win, top-10 and make-the-cut prices are separate markets, and each links to its own.
SEE ALSO