Government Shutdown 2026 Odds
Kalshi traders give a government shutdown at the next funding deadline, December 12, 2026, a 38% chance. At the last deadline, October 1, 2026, the government stayed funded. Below are the live odds, the other shutdown markets, and how every deadline Kalshi listed turned out.
Next deadline: Dec 12Updated today at 9:43 PM ET
Where these odds come from: Each percentage is the price of the deadline's Kalshi contract: the midpoint of the order book where it is tight, otherwise the last trade. Prices are not a Kalshi forecast.
Next funding deadlineIn 33 days
Saturday, December 12
38%chance of a shutdown
- Shutdown38%
- Funded in time62%
Last deadlineFundedOctober 1, 2026
Shutdowns in 20262Deadlines Kalshi's markets settled as shutdowns
Market closes10:00 AM ETDecember 12, 2026
Odds over time
How the odds of a shutdown on December 12, 2026 have moved
More shutdown marketsThe other questions traders are pricing about a shutdown. Some list only while a funding fight is on.
How many shutdowns, and how long one would last
Every deadlineEach funding deadline Kalshi listed, newest first, how its market settled, and how long each shutdown lasted.
Government shutdown history on Kalshi
- October 1, 2026939.6K contracts tradedFunded
- February 14, 2026Lasted 75–79 days30M contracts tradedShut down
- January 31, 2026Lasted 4 days60.6M contracts tradedShut down
- October 1, 2025Lasted 43 days6.8M contracts tradedShut down
- March 23, 2024128K contracts tradedFunded
- March 11, 202421.3K contracts tradedFunded
- March 4, 202473.9K contracts tradedFunded
- February 5, 20241.2K contracts tradedFunded
- February 3, 20242K contracts tradedFunded
- January 22, 202412.3K contracts tradedFunded
- January 20, 202441.8K contracts tradedFunded
- November 20, 2023144.2K contracts tradedFunded
- November 18, 202348.9K contracts tradedFunded
- November 17, 2023493.8K contracts tradedFunded
- October 4, 202317 contracts tradedFunded
- October 3, 20230 contracts tradedFunded
- October 2, 2023284.9K contracts tradedFunded
- October 1, 202243.9K contracts tradedFunded
- March 12, 202225K contracts tradedFunded
- February 19, 202259.6K contracts tradedFunded
- December 4, 202178.1K contracts tradedFunded
- October 1, 202123.8K contracts tradedFunded
Method
How Kalshi's shutdown odds work
Every funding deadline has its own Kalshi market with one contract. It settles Yes if federal funding lapses and the government shuts down at that deadline, and No if Congress passes funding or a stopgap in time.A Yes contract pays $1 if the shutdown happens, so its price in cents reads as the implied chance in percent. The other shutdown markets below ask related questions: how many shutdowns this year, and how long one would last.The history lists every deadline Kalshi listed and how its market settled. A deadline that passed with funding in place settled No.For a deadline that settled as a shutdown, the history also gives how long it lasted, from Kalshi's market on its length: a ladder of contracts such as "At least 30 days", each settling Yes once the shutdown reaches that length and No if it ends first.
FAQ
Government shutdown questions
Will the government shut down on December 12?
Kalshi traders give a shutdown at the December 12, 2026 funding deadline a 38% chance. The market settles Yes if the government shuts down at that deadline.
When is the next government shutdown deadline?
The next funding deadline Kalshi lists is December 12, 2026. Its market closes at 10:00 AM ET that day.
When was the last government shutdown?
The last funding deadline Kalshi's market settled as a shutdown was February 14, 2026.
How long did the last government shutdown last?
The shutdown that began at the February 14, 2026 funding deadline lasted 75–79 days, as Kalshi's market on its length settled.
How many government shutdowns have there been in 2026?
In 2026, Kalshi's markets settled two funding deadlines as shutdowns: January 31 and February 14.
How are Kalshi's government shutdown odds calculated?
Each funding deadline is a Kalshi market with one Yes/No contract: Yes pays $1 if the government shuts down at that deadline. The percentage is the contract's price, the midpoint of the order book where it is tight, otherwise the last trade, so a price of 30¢ reads as a 30% implied chance. Prices are not a Kalshi forecast.