IPO Odds 2026
Kalshi traders give Anthropic a 99% chance of officially announcing an IPO before January 1, 2027, the highest of the 26 companies Kalshi lists. Cerebras, SpaceX, Jersey Mike's and Shein already announced in 2026, by Kalshi's markets. Below are the odds for every company, the dates the market expects, and the IPOs already called.
26 companiesUpdated today at 9:27 PM ET
Where these odds come from: Each percentage is the price of a Kalshi contract on the company announcing an IPO before a date: the midpoint of the order book where it is tight, otherwise the last trade. Prices are not a Kalshi forecast.
Likeliest next IPO
Anthropic
99%chance of announcing an IPO before January 1, 2027
Chance of an announcement before each date
- 4%Nov 16
- 95%Dec 1
- 99%Jan 1
- 98%Feb 1
- 97%Mar 1
- 98%Apr 1
50% chance byBefore Dec 1, 2026Earliest date at 50% or more
Next dateNov 16, 20264% chance before it
Contracts traded5.3MAcross every date
Every companyEach company's chance of announcing an IPO before the same date, the earliest date its market gives even odds, and how much has traded. Tap a company for its market.
IPO odds by company, before January 1, 2027
| Company | Before Jan 1, 2027 | 50% chance by | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 99% | Before Dec 1, 2026 | 5.3M |
 | 7% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 15.3K |
 | 7% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 49.9K |
 | 6% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 144.5K |
 | 5% | Before Oct 1, 2027 | 108.8K |
 | 5% | Under 50% to Jan 1, 2028 | 33K |
 | 5% | Under 50% to Jan 1, 2028 | 11.2K |
 | 5% | Under 50% to Jan 1, 2028 | 28.4K |
 | 5% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 3.8K |
 | 4% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 124.6K |
 | 4% | Under 50% to Jan 1, 2028 | 28.3K |
 | 4% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 25.8K |
 | 4% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 23.2K |
 | 4% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 11.2K |
 | 4% | Before Jan 1, 2030 | 10.6K |
 | 3% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 49.6K |
 | 3% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 13.2K |
 | 3% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 5.7K |
 | 3% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 4.6K |
 | 3% | Under 50% to Jun 30, 2027 | 534.8K |
 | 2% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 4.3K |
 | 2% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 2.3K |
 | 2% | Under 50% to Jun 1, 2027 | 1.4M |
 | 1% | Under 50% to Jan 1, 2028 | 64.7K |
 | 1% | Under 50% to Jan 1, 2030 | 8.1K |
 | — | Before Jan 1, 2029 | 3.2K |
Odds over time
How Anthropic's IPO odds have moved
More IPO marketsThe other questions traders are pricing about IPOs: which companies announce this year, the banks that lead the biggest deals, and how the shares are set up.
Who goes public this year, and who takes them public
Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
Most likelyAnthropic97%Discord4%Bloomberg4%$2,673,586 vol
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
Most likelyGoldman Sachs98%Morgan Stanley2%JPMorgan Chase2%$140,967 vol
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?
Most likelyGoldman Sachs65%Morgan Stanley28%Citigroup4%$25,468 vol
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?
Yes or noYes10%No90%$7,062 vol
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?
Yes or noYes20%No80%$3,687 vol
Which banks will take Anthropic public?
Most likelyMizuho98%Lazard18%Centerview13%$22,155 vol
Which banks will take OpenAI public?
Most likelyStifel Financial41%Raymond James38%Needham & Company36%$11,751 vol
Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027?
Most likelyBank of America4%Goldman Sachs4%Citigroup4%$127,508 vol
What sector will Anthropic be assigned to?
Most likelyInformation Technology96%Unassigned7%Communication Services5%$27,123 vol
What sector will OpenAI be assigned to?
Most likelyInformation Technology91%Unassigned7%Communication Services5%$27,897 vol
Already calledEvery company whose Kalshi IPO market settled Yes, newest first.
IPOs Kalshi's markets have called
- Shein30.3K contracts tradedAnnounced Aug 24, 2026
- Jersey Mike's20.6K contracts tradedAnnounced Jul 30, 2026
- SpaceX7.6M contracts tradedAnnounced Jun 12, 2026
- Cerebras55.1K contracts tradedAnnounced May 14, 2026
- Medline16.3K contracts tradedAnnounced Dec 19, 2025
- Klarna14.6K contracts tradedAnnounced Sep 2, 2025
Method
How Kalshi's IPO odds work
Every company Kalshi lists has its own market, with one contract per date: "Before Jan 1, 2027", "Before Jul 1, 2027" and so on. Each settles Yes if the company officially announces an IPO before its date: the SEC declares its S-1 effective, the IPO is priced, or an exchange assigns a ticker.A Yes contract pays $1, so its price in cents reads as the implied chance in percent. The table reads every company at the same date, the next January 1, and shows the earliest date its market gives even odds.Thinly traded dates can price out of order, a later date below an earlier one, because each contract trades on its own. Once a company announces, every one of its contracts settles Yes and it moves to the IPOs Kalshi's markets have called.
FAQ
IPO questions
When will Anthropic IPO?
Kalshi traders give Anthropic a 99% chance of officially announcing an IPO before January 1, 2027. The earliest date its market gives even odds or better is December 1, 2026, at 95%.
When will OpenAI IPO?
Kalshi traders give OpenAI a 2% chance of officially announcing an IPO before January 1, 2027. None of the dates its market lists reaches even odds: the latest, June 1, 2027, is at 48%.
When will Starlink IPO?
Kalshi traders give Starlink a 3% chance of officially announcing an IPO before January 1, 2027. None of the dates its market lists reaches even odds: the latest, June 30, 2027, is at 5%.
When will Discord IPO?
Kalshi traders give Discord a 6% chance of officially announcing an IPO before January 1, 2027. None of the dates its market lists reaches even odds: the latest, June 1, 2027, is at 40%.
Which companies will IPO in 2026?
Kalshi's markets give better-than-even odds of announcing an IPO before January 1, 2027 to Anthropic (99%). Already announced in 2026, by Kalshi's markets: Cerebras, SpaceX, Jersey Mike's and Shein.
When did SpaceX announce its IPO?
Kalshi's market on SpaceX announcing an IPO settled Yes. It stopped trading on June 12, 2026, when the announcement was confirmed.
When did Cerebras announce its IPO?
Kalshi's market on Cerebras announcing an IPO settled Yes. It stopped trading on May 14, 2026, when the announcement was confirmed.
What counts as announcing an IPO on Kalshi?
A company's IPO market settles Yes once the SEC declares its Form S-1 effective, the IPO is priced, or a securities exchange assigns it a ticker, whichever comes first, even if trading starts later.
How are Kalshi's IPO odds calculated?
Each company has a Kalshi market with one Yes/No contract per date: Yes pays $1 if the company announces an IPO before that date. The percentage is the contract's price, the midpoint of the order book where it is tight, otherwise the last trade, so a price of 30¢ reads as a 30% implied chance. Prices are not a Kalshi forecast.